Who goes No. 1 in the Draft? Here are the odds and the case for each candidate
The start of the 2026 MLB Draft is just days away. On Saturday, shortly after 1 p.m. ET, the White Sox will answer the question everyone has been waiting to have answered: Who will be the No. 1 pick?
In these final days, the White Sox still have three players they are discussing for that first overall selection: Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. Those are the top three prospects, in order, on MLB Pipeline’s current Draft Top 250 prospects list.
They're not on the same plane in terms of how likely they are to go in the top spot though. The general consensus is that it's a two-man race, with Emerson and Cholowsky pretty much even with each other as the only true contenders. Lackey is on the outside looking in, still being discussed only as a contingency plan.
On this week's episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, Jim Callis and I discussed who could go to the White Sox and put odds on each candidate:
Callis
Emerson: 51%
Cholowsky: 47%
Lackey: 2%
Mayo
Emerson: 50%
Cholowsky: 50%
Here's the case for and against each candidate:
Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS (No. 1)
The case to take him: He's the best player in the Draft, even if it's by a slim margin. He has at least above-average tools across the board and could end up with four 60 or higher grades for hitting -- he's considered the best pure hitter in the class -- power, arm and defense. He's a better prospect now than Cholowsky was when he was in high school, and there's sentiment that were he to end up in college, he'd be a better prospect than Cholowsky is now, with the highest ceiling of any prospect at the top of the board.
The case not to take him: As a high schooler, the perception is it will take him longer to get to the big leagues. He doesn't have the track record of someone like Cholowsky and his three years at UCLA. He has plenty of raw power, but it hasn’t shown up in games consistently yet.
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Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA (No. 2)
The case to take him: He's performed, at a high level, on the No. 1 college team in the country. He's hit 44 homers and driven in 134 runs over the last two seasons, with a combined OPS of around 1.100. He has a very advanced approach at the plate, with more career walks than strikeouts with the Bruins, and handled the pressure of having the "top prospect" spotlight well all year. He has four plus tools and he's a no-doubt shortstop at the next level and a natural leader who should get to the big leagues quickly.
The case not to take him: While he had a very solid junior season, he was actually better as a sophomore, and while this might be unfair under a perceived No. 1 prospect for most of the year microscope, he didn't quite take it to the next level as some anticipated. He has an extremely high floor, but Emerson’s ceiling might be higher. There has been a little bit of chatter about concerns over his production with a wood bat.
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Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech (No. 3)
The case to take him: Lackey had one of the best offensive seasons in college baseball this year, finishing with a 1.291 OPS, 20 homers and 15 steals. He has three plus tools (hit, power, arm), while also being an above-average defender behind the plate with average speed, better than most backstops. He's even looked good at third base, should a team want to move him from behind the plate. He likely would sign in the top spot for more of a discount compared to the other two candidates.
The case not to take him: The industry generally believes that Emerson and Cholowsky are the top tier players in this class and Lackey is perhaps a half-tier below, so if the belief is to take the best player at 1-1, then he shouldn't be a serious contender. In most years, even the top talent hasn't signed for full slot (so the Orioles "saved money" on Adley Rutschman, the Pirates on Paul Skenes, for example), and no one expects either Emerson or Cholowsky to pull in the full slot of over $11.3 million this time, either.