From inspired White Sox to MVPCA, the most shocking developments of 2026

Every time we think we have baseball even remotely figured out, it taps its head to issue a challenge to our assumptions.

As usual, we’ve had A Bunch of Surprises (ABS) in this 2026 MLB season, so let’s review (are you picking up on this lame gag yet?) a dozen of the biggest here.

1) The rapid rise of the White Sox

The Sox skipped that step where you have an incrementally better bridge year in between 100 losses and playoff contention. They went right to the hard launch of an October-ready unit, and it’s been a blast to watch their fans enjoy their purse-suit of a division crown.

While MLB is no stranger to worst-to-first stories (the Blue Jays did it just last year, en route to the AL pennant), it’s pretty jarring when the team attempting that feat set the Modern Era loss record just two years prior. The Cleveland Spiders understandably closed up shop after losing 134 in 1899. The expansion Mets went through six more consecutive losing seasons after dropping 120 in 1962. But the White Sox are already vying for a division title two years after losing 121.

Do you believe in miracles? Well, we know at least one guy in a Pope hat does.

2) Pete Crow-Armstong possibly unseating Shohei Ohtani for NL MVP

Things happen to even the greatest players in their 30s, so it’s not as if Aaron Judge and Ohtani entered the season immune to injury or statistical regression. Still, it seemed a safe bet that at least one would repeat as MVP. Now, there’s a distinct possibility both get bounced.

Judge’s exit from the AL race is a given after being sidelined since late May. In the NL, the PCA MVP chatter is gaining late-season momentum with Ohtani’s pitching on pause and his offense registering as "merely" excellent instead of otherworldly. PCA didn't enter the year as an obvious MVP candidate after stalling in the second half of an All-Star 2025 campaign -- and he didn't look like one in April or May either. But he’s certainly become a household acronym now.

3) The anemic American League

Sure, the National League had more elite teams last year (four with run differentials greater than +100, versus only two in the AL), but few could have predicted the divide widening this drastically.

The AL is in danger of posting its worst Interleague winning percentage since cross-league matchups began in 1997. There is not only a real possibility of a sub-.500 Wild Card club in the junior circuit (which has never happened in a full season) but perhaps even a sub-.500 division winner (a feat never accomplished in any season, yet still possible in the AL West).

4) The Brewers and Rays vying for their leagues’ best record

Maybe some Wisconsinites aren't surprised by the Brewers’ continued dominance. But it’s fair for the rest of us to be. You would think there’s a limit to how many stars a club can shed (in this case, former ace Freddy Peralta) before reality catches up. Yet again, nothing has caught up with Milwaukee -- including the Cubs.

The Rays are an even bigger shock relative to preseason expectations after trading key Major League pieces like Shane Baz and Brandon Lowe. Even PECOTA and FanGraphs, which usually lavish love on the Rays, projected them below .500. Instead, returning to Tropicana Field has sparked one of the best home records of the century, with the Rays making the bunt cool again while pacing a loaded AL East.

5) The stumbles of the Mariners, Blue Jays, Tigers and Mets

Going by FanGraphs’ preseason odds, these four teams -- all given better than 50% odds to reach October -- stand as the most disappointing clubs in baseball.

Last fall, the Tigers were a win away from the ALCS, the Mariners a win away from the World Series and the Jays two outs away from a ring. This season, all three have struggled to find traction. While they remain alive in the postseason race, that speaks far more to the AL's soft midsection than their own merits. Seattle could still claim the West, but playing .500 ball in a weak division is hardly cause for celebration.

Meanwhile, the Mets’ dramatic offseason makeover succeeded only in taking a disappointing 2025 roster and making it decidedly worse, absorbing age and injury risk straight into worst-case scenarios across the board.

6) The strange struggles of Big Dumper and Vladdy

Baked into the stumbles of Seattle and Toronto are the shocking regressions of Cal Raleigh and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s rare for genuine stars coming off career-defining years to enter such deep nosedives.

Raleigh has shown signs of life lately -- a welcome reprieve in an otherwise calamitous year at the plate -- but his OPS has dropped by more than 300 points. Turns out hitting 60 homers as a full-time catcher takes a toll.

Guerrero hitting fewer home runs (7) -- with zero at Rogers Centre -- at this stage than he did during last year's postseason alone (8) defies explanation. Andrés Giménez shouldn't be out-homering a healthy Guerrero, yet here we are.

7) Bona fide breakouts for Jake Bauers and CJ Abrams

Among the individual success stories across the league (and plenty of front offices kicking themselves for passing on White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami), Bauers and Abrams stand out in the top 10 of the NL OPS leaderboards.

Abrams showed promise as a 2024 All-Star, but following offseason trade rumors, the Nats' shortstop morphed from a slap-hitter profile into a legitimate power threat. Paired with his elite speed, his push toward a 30-30 season makes him one of the game's most thrilling players.

Bauers’ placement on the leaderboard is an even larger surprise. After years in the wilderness bouncing between organizations, he found his footing with Milwaukee last year. This season, he has evolved into a force of nature, boasting an OPS+ more than 40% above league average.

8) Boston’s bizarre trajectory

While this list measures performance against preseason expectations, the Red Sox deserve a special nod for their chaotic path to the thick of the AL Wild Card standings.

No team in history had ever mounted a 27-3 run after falling 10 or more games under .500. Boston went from 14 games under to 14 games over in just two months -- all without ace Garrett Crochet. Their FanGraphs playoff odds plummeted from 60.8% on Opening Day to 9.4% at their low point, only to surge back up to 99%. Absolute madness.

9) The front office overhauls in the AL West

In-season managerial firings are standard baseball theater. Pour one out this year for Alex Cora (BOS), Rob Thomson (PHI) and Carlos Mendoza (NYM).

Far rarer is a midseason front-office change, and rarer still is what just transpired in the AL West, where three divisional rivals -- the A’s (David Forst), Astros (Dana Brown) and Angels (Perry Minasian) -- all handed their general managers a pink slip in the same summer.

10) The Nationals’ explosive offense

If real baseball were played like those old handheld electronic games where you only bat, Washington would be cruising toward a pennant. While their pitching staff leaves plenty to be desired (despite Cade Cavalli’s best efforts), this lineup rakes, boasting the highest slugging percentage in the sport.

Without a massive roster overhaul, the breakout of Abrams alongside James Wood’s ascent to superstar status has transformed a lineup that ranked 20th in runs per game and 24th in OPS last season into the second- and third-best marks in MLB.

11) Kyle Tucker’s replacement-level output

The consensus logic made sense: Tucker signing a four-year, $240 million deal with L.A. placed a low-key star in a market where he wouldn't have to carry the spotlight.

Instead, he’s drawn every bit of attention by posting borderline unplayable numbers (.189/.287/.267) at Dodger Stadium. L.A.'s massive depth has insulated their record, but even skeptics of Tucker’s record-setting AAV couldn't have predicted a 0.0 WAR campaign.

12) The AL Cy Young race

However this shakes out, the final ballot will share almost no DNA with last year’s top 10: Tarik Skubal (DET), Garrett Crochet (BOS), Hunter Brown (HOU), Max Fried (NYY), Bryan Woo (SEA), Carlos Rodón (NYY), Aroldis Chapman (BOS), Jacob deGrom (TEX), Drew Rasmussen (TB) and Trevor Rogers (BAL).

In our latest MLB.com poll, the only pitcher from that list to receive any votes was Rasmussen (third). Dylan Cease’s return to the AL with the Blue Jays, Cam Schlittler’s sophomore superlatives with the Yankees and Parker Messick’s rousing rookie year with the Guardians -- not to mention Skubal getting hurt and then traded to the NL -- have reset the top of the heap.