Snell's odds of being ready by Opening Day are 'probably zero'

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The writing on the wall has gotten clearer with each day that passes at Dodgers camp, but the team has at last acknowledged the reality of the situation: Blake Snell is highly unlikely to begin the season in the rotation.

"He’s not on a mound right now. He’s not in games," manager Dave Roberts said Saturday. "The odds of him starting the season are probably zero.”

As the other Dodgers in the mix for the season-opening rotation have ramped up by facing hitters and getting into Cactus League games, Snell has been in stasis, only playing catch out to about 90 feet over the first two weeks of camp. The left-hander is due to progress to throwing out to 120 feet soon, then 180 feet, after which he'll be ready to get back on a mound.

But there's a good chance that could be as far as Snell gets before the Dodgers break camp on March 21.

Time was not on Snell's side from the beginning of Spring Training. He came into camp behind after slow-playing his offseason throwing program due to lingering discomfort in his left shoulder, which landed him on the injured list for four months last year.

When Snell last spoke to the media at DodgerFest, he said his shoulder "never felt great" last year, even before the season began. He had just joined the Dodgers on a five-year, $182 million contract and wanted to make a strong first impression. He made only two starts before his extended IL stint but finished strong down the stretch, going 5-4 with a 2.35 ERA across 61 1/3 innings in 11 starts.

Snell may have missed out on most of the regular season, but he hit his stride in time for the postseason, holding opponents to 12 earned runs in 34 innings (3.18 ERA) across six appearances (five starts).

"Last year, I had so much to prove," Snell said on Jan. 31. "I got way too excited and was really pushing to get to spring, get through spring. This year, I'm going to be a little slower just in how I ramp up -- be a lot more smarter on that."

The Dodgers prefer to build their starters up to the five-inning, 75-pitch range. Once Snell gets back on the mound, he'll have to work up to throwing his entire pitch mix. He'll likely do some bullpen sessions with up-downs to simulate multiple innings. He'll have to check those same boxes when facing hitters. At that point, he can get into rehab games, building up an inning at a time. The team has yet to specify a timeline for Snell, but it is unlikely that he'll throw a pitch for the Dodgers before May at the earliest.

As things stand, the Dodgers have some rotation questions to resolve beyond Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow before Opening Day. Shohei Ohtani is expected to begin the season in the rotation, but he likely won't be fully built up. There's some competition for the remaining spots, as well, with Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, Gavin Stone and River Ryan all in the mix.

Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani will all be used as traditional starters, but it's a possibility that the others could be used in a more hybrid role as needed. That could mean there's some fluidity between the back of the rotation and the length options in the bullpen.

"With pitching, you never know what's going to happen as far as the health part of it," Roberts said. "To have so many guys built up, obviously, just gives us a lot of optionality."

Beginning the season without a frontline starter like Snell would be a big blow to any team. But the Dodgers won back-to-back World Series despite a rash of pitching injuries, and they've built their roster with an eye on withstanding any adversity that may come in their three-peat bid.