Here's why a long winning streak has eluded Blue Jays

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays need a miracle, and unless they get one, we’ll spend the next few months picking apart one of the most disappointing seasons in this franchise’s history.

World Series expectations have cratered into a race for the third American League Wild Card spot, and they enter their final six games sitting three games back of the White Sox.

A dozen different numbers can help us to frame this Blue Jays season, from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s career-worst season across the board to their crowded IL and lackluster offense. There’s one number which captures all of this, though: four.

The Blue Jays’ longest winning streak in 2026 is just four games, which they did twice in May and once in early September. This ties them with the Rockies, Angels, Twins, Mets and Nationals for the shortest winning streak in baseball this season, which isn’t exactly the company you want to be keeping. None of these six teams are in a postseason spot, and many of them are a mile from one.

Looking back through franchise history, the Blue Jays have only had one season with a max winning streak shorter than four games. That was 1977, the club’s inaugural season, when the Blue Jays cobbled together an expansion team to play at Exhibition Stadium on the shore of Lake Ontario.

Unless you stand among this league’s truly elite teams, alongside the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays, seasons are defined by streaks. The 2025 Blue Jays ripped off 10 wins in a row through late June and early July, a season-defining streak that included sweeps over the Yankees and Angels. That launched them from 44-38 -- just creeping into the “contender” race -- to 54-38, a sudden juggernaut that put the rest of the league on notice.

This year, there’s been no streak, no season-defining run. It’s a season that’s difficult to define at all, void of much identity, and now even the truly great individual performances, like Dylan Cease or Louis Varland, could be lost in the fire.

Reason 1: A rotation in shambles

It’s hard to win five games in a row when you rarely start the same five pitchers in a row.

It’s easy to lose track of the Blue Jays’ pitching injuries in the daily news cycle, but when you step back and take inventory, it’s a stunner. So many of these pitchers, if they were healthy, could have been contributing down the stretch.

They’ve been without José Berríos (Tommy John surgery), Bowden Francis (Tommy John) and Cody Ponce (ACL). Francis actually works as a useful example here, because while he wasn’t projected to open the season in the Blue Jays’ rotation, he’s the exact type of optionable depth starter who could have made 20-plus starts.

Then, there have been chunks of the season spent without Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Patrick Corbin and even Cease for a couple of weeks. Jake Bloss, one of their top pitching prospects working his way back from Tommy John, has been on the IL with a teres major strain since August. Everyone who could have had a chance to fill in has fallen right into the pit with the rest of them, one injury on top of another.

Yes, every team deals with this, but the Blue Jays’ run of injuries has been particularly cruel. With every fourth or fifth day being a bullpen game or some variation of a “bulk guy,” good luck stringing together a winning streak.

Reason 2: An unexplosive offense

The obvious? The Blue Jays are the second-lowest-scoring offense in baseball, which doesn’t exactly help build winning streaks.

The Blue Jays have scored 10 or more runs just seven times, something they did 17 times a season ago. That 2025 team won some big, ugly slugfests with scores like 11-9, 12-9 and 13-9. Each of those days, at least one pitcher had a terrible day at the office, but an explosive offense covered that up and we all quickly forgot who was on the mound to begin with.

This year, there’s no cover, no makeup, no backup. When a Blue Jays starter has a bad day, they’ve had to wear it.

This has been particularly hard on the bullpen, too. Varland has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, truly elite by every metric, but any stumble by Varland, Braydon Fisher, Tyler Rogers or the middle relievers has flipped games. This offense has only handed its bullpen tight, stressful assignments.

That’s brought the Blue Jays here, to the end of a tight, stressful season that never had a real streak.