3 questions for ALCS: Bichette's health, Scherzer or Bassitt, France as an option

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays keep running into good problems, but good problems still need good answers.

Bo Bichette’s left knee is one of the biggest stories in baseball leading into the American League Championship Series, which begins Sunday in Toronto with first pitch scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET. He has started jogging and facing live pitching, so while the AL Division Series was clearly an unlikely target in the days leading up to it, the Championship Series feels like the ultimate 50-50 call.

"I've made a lot of progress recently, so I'm optimistic about my chances," Bichette said after the Blue Jays clinched the ALDS on Wednesday in New York. "I still have some hurdles to clear, but I'm optimistic. ... I'm feeling better every day."

The Blue Jays’ pitching plans will need to be reevaluated, too. Expanding from a five-game to a seven-game series could necessitate another starter on the roster, and the opponent could play a major factor here, too.

The Tigers crush lefties with a team OPS of .774 this regular season, second to only the Yankees’ .797. On the other hand, right-handed pitching held the Tigers to a .712 OPS, 21st in the Majors, while the Mariners sat much closer to even splits. The Blue Jays went heavy on lefty relievers in the ALDS, carrying Justin Bruihl as their fourth in the bullpen, but that’s one of several spots up for discussion over the next 48 hours.

These decisions are facing the Blue Jays:

1. Is Bichette healthy enough?
Bichette returning to the roster and returning as a shortstop are two very different things. It’s encouraging that he’s running, but what about the side-to-side movement he’d need defensively?

This gets tangled if Bichette can only return as a DH. His bat is worth the challenge of putting together the puzzle elsewhere, because even though the Blue Jays are coming off an all-time offensive performance in the ALDS, having Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bichette in the three-four spots is still their best shot at winning a World Series.

If Bichette’s a DH, that means George Springer is an outfielder, something he has done just nine times since the beginning of August. Depending on matchups, this would bump one of either Anthony Santander or Nathan Lukes to the bench. It also feels difficult to envision the Blue Jays being comfortable with an outfield defense of Santander and Springer on either side of Daulton Varsho.

All of this would still necessitate Myles Straw being on the roster as a late-game defensive replacement, so Bichette would likely bump out Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The Blue Jays need Bichette. Bichette deserves a shot at this, too, in what could be his final days with the organization. It’s complicated, though, and the Bichette decision sends a few dominoes toppling.

2. Max Scherzer or Chris Bassitt?
Could the answer be both? Here’s the latest:

Wednesday in Toronto, Bassitt threw around 45 pitches and Scherzer threw around 95. Even with Bassitt’s rubber arm, it feels like he’s the likelier option as a bulk reliever, and Scherzer is the likelier option if the Blue Jays opt for a traditional fourth starter over a bullpen game.

One note on the bullpen game: The Blue Jays would be wiser to line that up on Game 3 or 5, if it’s part of their strategy, to keep it connected to an off-day on either side. Rolling that out in Game 4, like they did in the ALDS, would drop it in the middle of three games in three days, which is too risky.

One of these veterans could likely take the Bruihl spot, while the next in line would be Tommy Nance’s spot. These two haven’t just been pitching to stay fresh for an emergency. The Blue Jays have a plan here, and there’s a legitimate shot both are involved in the ALCS.

3. If no Bo, what about Ty France?
France (left oblique) was healthy enough for the ALDS, he just didn’t have enough time to face much live pitching, which he has since done.

If Bichette isn’t ready for the ALCS, the Blue Jays’ decision then comes down to France against Kiner-Falefa. The entire conversation brings us to how Toronto has balanced its roster.

The Blue Jays rolled with five infielders against the Yankees: Guerrero, Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez, Addison Barger … and Kiner-Falefa. That’s a starting infield with one versatile backup, so any conversation about swapping in France for Kiner-Falefa would necessitate Davis Schneider playing some second base in a pinch.

The pathway for France still feels awfully narrow for the ALCS and is wholly dependent on Bichette.