Braves starters allow lots of hits in 0-2 counts. Can they correct course?

There are well-documented reasons why the Braves were in the market for a frontline starter at the Trade Deadline. Though they added a depth piece in Tyler Mahle, they didn't land the type of clear difference-maker that many fans wanted.

As the team heads down the stretch, there’s now even more scrutiny on a few things: the lack of a potent 1-2 punch for the postseason, their bullpen's durability and the rotation's overall dependability.

But amid all that, there's another issue that needs to improve: Braves starters are among the worst in baseball at allowing hits when way ahead in the count. In other words, Atlanta starters as a collective give up more hits on 0-2 and 1-2 pitches than all but a few MLB teams.

That's certainly a suboptimal development. Can they reverse it? Yes, and we'll get to that in a bit. First, the bad parts.

Braves starters have allowed a .174 opponents average in 0-2 and 1-2 counts, which ranked 23rd in baseball entering Friday. The league average mark in those counts is .160.

On 0-2 counts specifically, opponents are hitting .181, giving Braves starters the fifth-worst mark in the Majors. Atlanta’s rotation also has allowed a .443 OPS on 0-2 pitches (eighth highest in MLB) and allowed 18 runs in those situations (eighth most).

All told, Braves starters have allowed 104 hits on 0-2 and 1-2 pitches, tied for the sixth-highest total in the bigs. Among pitchers who've made at least 10 starts for the Braves, the breakdown on 0-2 and 1-2 pitches looks like this:

Reynaldo López: .239 opponents average
Grant Holmes: .204 opponents average
Martín Pérez: .176 opponents average
Chris Sale: .163 opponents average
Bryce Elder: .148 opponents average

What's driving this? Is it pitch selection? Execution? Bad luck? Some mix of all three? What's interesting is that, despite all this, the Braves' starters still rank sixth in baseball in putaway rate (20.9 percent), which is the percentage of two-strike counts that end in a strikeout. And the rotation leader in that stat? Elder, at 24.6 percent.

A new hope?

Though it's impossible to say with certainty that the Braves can solve this issue this season, there's at least reason to think things might get a little better -- and perhaps soon.

Mahle, the lone starter Atlanta acquired at the Deadline, has held opponents to a .134 average in 0-2 and 1-2 counts, which makes him far and away the team leader in pitcher-friendly counts and should bode well down the stretch.

Meanwhile, Sale's performance in these counts could start correcting more toward his career average. Though he's still around league average in 0-2 and 1-2 counts this season, he's held opponents to a .133 average in those spots during his 16 years in the bigs, while that number dropped to .103 during his 2024 NL Cy Young campaign. His .163 mark this season is his highest in a full season since 2012.

There could -- emphasis on could -- be help from other sources, too.

Should Spencer Schwellenbach return at some point in September and be anywhere close to his previous form, that would provide a boost in general but also help with the 0-2/1-2 issue. The righty has held opponents to a .151 average in those counts during his career.

As for other rotation options such as AJ Smith-Shawver or JR Ritchie, neither has a large enough sample size to draw real conclusions about their ability to consistently put hitters away when ahead in the count. But for what it's worth, despite his issues with command, Ritchie has held hitters to a .119 average this season in 0-2 and 1-2 counts.

Is this even important? Yes

So why does it matter? The Braves have a comfortable lead in the NL East and seem to be cruising toward the postseason. Plus, not every 0-2 or 1-2 hit results in a run or ends up mattering in the game. That's all true.

But lots of hits in 0-2 and 1-2 counts have a ripple effect: More pitches mean longer innings. Longer innings mean shorter outings. Shorter outings mean a heavier workload on the bullpen. An overworked bullpen means a greater chance of ineffectiveness. Ineffectiveness means disappointing outcomes down the stretch or in October. And late-season letdowns lead to lots of what-ifs.

(Related: Since June 15, Braves starters have averaged 4.79 innings per start, which ranks 26th in MLB.)

As the Braves aim for a deep postseason run, and their first postseason series win since their 2021 World Series title season, the starters will need to offer length while also keeping their pitch counts manageable to allow the bullpen to stay fresh and effective at season's end.

Better results on 0-2 and 1-2 counts would help with both.