McGreevy's numbers don't add up, and Brewers saw through it
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MILWAUKEE – Michael McGreevy is an odd pitcher.
The 6-foot-4 right-hander doesn’t overpower hitters with velocity or plus movement, instead relying on sequencing and attacking hitters by constantly pounding the strike zone. That’s not the usual recipe for a young starter in 2026 -- just look who was opposite the Cardinals on Monday afternoon.
But for McGreevy, it’s been working.
Tuesday night’s 6-0 loss to the first-place Brewers at American Family Field was the first time it didn’t this season, though. McGreevy allowed seven hits and a season-high five runs despite striking out six batters, tied for the second most he’s had this year.
To put into perspective just how good McGreevy’s been, he entered Tuesday allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 starts this season. He had allowed more than five hits in only two of those outings and had gotten outs in the sixth inning in all but three.
What’s potentially worrying, however, is that analytics tell a little bit of a different story. His Baseball Savant page isn’t the color scheme usually associated with pitchers who have a 2.98 ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) was 5.84 entering Tuesday night, is dark blue, in the 9th percentile of all pitchers. McGreevy’s expected batting average (.296, 4th percentile), whiff rate (19.4%, 13th percentile), barrel percentage (10.0%, 17th percentile) and chase percentage (28.4%, 35th percentile) are also well below average.
So how has he been so effective?
Execution and pitch mix. Hitting your spots with a seven-pitch arsenal (four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, sinker, curveball, sweeper and slider) can keep the best of hitters guessing both location and speed. You don’t need high-end velocity for that (9th percentile in fastball velocity, 90.9 mph).
Where it went wrong for McGreevy on Tuesday night was a combination of a rare lack of execution -- and inexperience.
The most telling was his best pitch, his sinker, not generating what it needed to get McGreevy out of situations with runners on base. His sinker was down -3 inches on its horizontal break compared to his season average (12), which left him vulnerable to a hitter like William Contreras, who crushed a two-run double with the bases loaded to chase the 25-year-old from the game.
“It’s not that I want that sinker back to Contreras in that fifth inning, but I think if the shape is normal, how I normally throw my sinker and how it normally is, that’s a groundball double play, take two [outs] for one [run],” McGreevy said. “But I just have to be better. … I was committed with the changeup, but it was one of those days where it was moving a little bit differently.”
That’s what led McGreevy into rare command issues. He’s elite at not walking hitters (92nd percentile), so back-to-back walks after a leadoff double to start the fifth inning was proof his pitches weren’t moving how he thought they should.
“ .. It was one of those days where it was moving a little bit differently,” McGreevy said. “I need to be better and know that I need to start that a little higher, to get a swing at least. Just these last two starts, I think I’m always going to think the process is good. I got six strikeouts which is great, I thought I executed well with two strikes, but I can’t keep shooting myself in the foot like that.”
McGreevy said he will stick by his sinker against right-handed hitters, even if they are sitting on it, but that may require throwing more changeups, curveballs and four-seamers in those situations to keep opposing hitters off of it, which McGreevy is working on.
Tuesday night was only McGreevy’s 30th career start. He’s still figuring out his pitch mix, what to do when his A-Game stuff isn’t there and how to go through a Major League lineup for a third time. But he’s digesting it all, and understanding what it takes to last as a big leaguer. That’s why he’s been so good.
“I think being a professional and trying to be a good starter in this league, I have to understand the shape is what it is today, let’s maybe bank on something different here,” McGreevy said. “Maybe go for the sweeper, that’s what we got [Contreras to swing through twice during] the second time through. Chop it up to a learning lesson, you know. If you can’t take anything away, then it’s really a loss today.”