The Rays have the No. 2 overall Draft pick. Who will they take?
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This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ST. PETERSBURG -- This is, to put it lightly, a busy time of year for baseball front offices. They’re forced to balance what’s happening daily in the regular season with the short-term impact of the looming Trade Deadline and the long-term implications of the coming MLB Draft.
It’s all top of mind for the Rays right now. They have the second-best record in the American League, a roster that could use some reinforcements after a monthlong skid and, thanks to some good fortune in the Draft Lottery, the second overall pick in the MLB Draft on July 11 in Philadelphia.
It’s a huge and rare opportunity for the Rays to add top-end talent to a Minor League system that features top prospect Theo Gillen (No. 39 overall) and a ton of depth. Their last top-10 pick came in 2017, when they took Brendan McKay fourth overall. This will be their highest selection since making back-to-back No. 1 overall picks in 2007 (David Price) and ’08 (Tim Beckham).
Taking into account MLB Pipeline’s recent mock drafts and Draft prospect rankings, including their scouting grades, let’s look at five players you should know before the Rays are on the clock.
Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
MLB Pipeline Draft ranking: No. 1
Scouting grades (20-80 scale): Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 65
Why he could be the pick: Well, he’s the No. 1 Draft prospect for a reason. Some evaluators consider him to be the best all-around college shortstop prospect since Troy Tulowitzki, and you could do a lot worse than that. He hits for average and power, has an advanced approach and looks like a plus defender with a strong arm at a premium position. As a college player, he comes with a high floor and could move quickly through the system.
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Why he wouldn’t be the pick: For starters, the White Sox could take him with the No. 1 pick. Cholowsky was the preseason favorite to go first overall, and not much has changed. But if he’s on the board, it’s still an interesting debate. Many evaluators believe the top tier does not start and end with the UCLA shortstop. It also includes the next two players. That makes the decision a matter of organizational preference.
Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian High School
MLB Pipeline Draft ranking: No. 2
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 65
Why he could be the pick: Some scouts think Emerson might have more upside than Cholowsky, and it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Rays have leaned in that direction with their first-round choices lately. (Five of their last six top picks have come from the high school ranks: Daniel Pierce, Gillen, Xavier Isaac, Carson Williams and Nick Bitsko.) Emerson has a well-rounded game with all-around tools, advanced skills and plus makeup.
Why he wouldn’t be the pick: Again, the White Sox could get to him first. Or they could take Vahn Lackey, leaving the Rays to decide between Cholowsky and Emerson. There’s not really a knock on Emerson’s game, as he’s a talented hitter and a no-doubt shortstop, so it would come down to whether the Rays want someone who’s believed to be closer to the Majors than him to sustain their goal of contending every season.
Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
MLB Pipeline Draft ranking: No. 3
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 60
Why he could be the pick: Not sure if you’ve heard this, but the Rays have had some issues finding a long-term option behind the plate over the years. The last time they picked this high, they passed on Buster Posey in favor of Beckham, a high school shortstop. And Lackey looks like the real deal, as a super-athletic backstop with a strong arm who hit .397/.519/.772 with 20 homers, 15 steals and more walks (50) than strikeouts (38) for Georgia Tech this spring. What he did has made him a legitimate 1C to Cholowsky’s 1A and Emerson’s 1B.
Why he wouldn’t be the pick: The White Sox will leave Cholowsky or Emerson on the board -- or both, if they take Lackey. If the Rays believe someone else has a chance to be a better player, they won’t pick a catcher just because they’ve struggled to find one in the past. There’s a reason the words “best player available” are said so often before, during and after the Draft.
Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
MLB Pipeline Draft ranking: No. 5
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60
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Why he could be the pick: Flora is the consensus top-ranked pitcher in this year’s Draft class, so he at least merits a mention here. He’s big, listed at 6-foot-5 and 205 pounds. He throws hard, with a heater that touches triple digits. He has secondary stuff, including two sliders and a changeup. And he performed well for UC Santa Barbara this spring, going 12-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 102 innings over 16 starts.
Why he wouldn’t be the pick: For one, he’s generally ranked in a tier below the clear-cut top trio listed above. There’s just a different level of risk with pitchers, and the Rays have steered clear of them in the first round since taking Bitsko in 2020.
Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
MLB Pipeline Draft ranking: No. 20
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55
Why he could be the pick: The Rays drafted Bell 66th overall out of high school in 2024, and he was the highest unsigned pick in that class. He immediately became Kentucky’s best player, and he’s one of the best sophomore-eligible prospects in this year’s class after hitting .343/.510/.608 for the Wildcats this spring. Combine the Rays’ previous interest with his balanced skill-set and the possibility of him signing a below-slot deal, freeing them up to be creative and aggressive with later picks (including No. 33 and No. 49) and the rest of their bonus pool, and you can see why this rumor won’t seem to go away.
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Why he wouldn’t be the pick: He’s not as highly regarded as Cholowsky or Emerson, who play the same position, and it would be a high-risk maneuver to get clever with the second overall pick considering how rarely the Rays are in this position.