How is Philly's postseason outlook with 12 games to play?

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Ronald Acuña Jr. slowly trotted around the bases in the fourth inning on Saturday night at Truist Park.

The Phillies and Braves have built a nice rivalry over the years, and Saturday’s leisurely home run trots in Atlanta between Bryce Harper and Acuña felt like extensions of that. Harper rounded the bases on a first-inning homer in 34.27 seconds, his longest trot on an undisputed homer since Statcast started tracking them in 2015 and the Phillies’ longest trot on an undisputed homer in that span. Acuña rounded the bases in 31.57 seconds, a tad faster than his 32.36-second stroll last Sunday in Philadelphia.

After his jaunt around the bases on Saturday, however, Harper could only speak about the Phillies’ postseason chances and how the NL East had slipped away from them. The Phillies were four games behind the Braves in the NL East on Sept. 4 with seven games against them in the next 10 days.

The Phillies went 3-4 against Atlanta in those two series, including Sunday’s 9-4 victory. Now, they’re five back with 12 to play. They’d need a miracle of miracles to win the division at this point.

Instead, they must fight for an NL Wild Card berth with 12 games to play.

“We’ve just got to take care of business,” Harper said. “We can't worry about what other teams are doing, especially when you're in this situation. We’ve got to play better baseball. If we don't, we're not going to be in. I think, as a team, we’ve just got to look in the mirror, understand what we need to do on a nightly basis and guys have got to grind.”

If the season ended on Sunday, the Cubs would host the Phillies in a best-of-three NL Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field, beginning on Sept. 29. The Phillies and Cubs have the same record at 83-67, but the Cubs won the season series (6-1), giving them the tiebreaker.

But right behind both teams are the Padres and Diamondbacks.

If the Phillies slip to the No. 3 Wild Card spot, the Braves would host them in a best-of-three series at Truist Park.

Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the four NL Wild Card contenders:

Cubs (98.9% chance to make the postseason entering Sunday, according to FanGraphs):

Six at home, six on the road, six vs. teams with winning records
• 3 vs. Braves
• 3 at Reds
• 3 vs. Marlins
• 3 at Red Sox

Phillies (97.5%):

Six at home, six on the road, six vs. teams with winning records
• 2 at Nationals
• 4 at Mets
• 3 vs. Brewers
• 3 vs. Rays

Padres (72.6%):

Six at home, seven on the road, six vs. teams with winning records
• 4 at Rockies
• 3 vs. Marlins
• 3 at Dodgers
• 3 vs. Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks (30.9%):

Six at home, six on the road, six vs. teams with winning records
• 3 vs. Marlins
• 3 vs. Yankees
• 3 at Rockies
• 3 at Padres

Phillies fans might want to root for the Marlins, who play the Cubs, Padres and Diamondbacks down the stretch. It helps the Phillies that San Diego and Arizona play each other on the final weekend of the season.

The Phillies face the best teams in each league in the final homestand of the season at Citizens Bank Park, but if Milwaukee and Tampa Bay secure the necessary seeding, they could use that time to rest players and set up their rotations for their hopeful postseason run.

But the Phillies can’t necessarily count on that or expect it.

They just need to win games.

“Take it forward into these next series and keep pushing,” Kyle Schwarber said.