Which Cardinals hitters can reach 100 OPS+ in 2026?

As we have seen from the first few games of the Cardinals’ 2026 season, the pitching staff, and especially the bullpen, are going to be a work in progress. Some guys will have set roles, some guys will shift, some guys will be sent down, some guys will be brought up -- the Cardinals will be tinkering with who is on the mound, and how long (and when) they are out there, all year. That staff is going to look very different in September than it looks right now.

The lineup, however, is a whole other story. The young Cardinals lineup, which only has two hitters in it over the age of 26 (and they’re both only 27), is generally locked into place the rest of the season. The one possible exception is left field, where Nathan Church is holding down the fort until Lars Nootbaar (heel surgery) returns, whenever that turns out to be. The Cardinals know who each of their position players are; they just need to find out whether they can establish themselves as regulars, and as members of the next great Cardinals team. They have a full year to show what they can do … or the Cardinals will find someone else to give a chance.

Some of these players (Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II) are glove-first specialists, who have a lower bar to clear offensively than those at more premium offensive positions (Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman). But at the very least, you’d like to see each of these players have an average offensive season. And, handily, we have a statistic, OPS+, that gives us an exact number for league average offense: 100. If you’re above 100 OPS+, you’re an above average hitter. If you’re below 100, you’re below average.

Average is a hard number to hit: Baseball is hard! Last season, only two of those current regulars, Iván Herrera (136) and Alec Burleson (125) got above 100. So, a week into the season, let’s take a look at each of the nine lineup regulars and look at their chances of putting together an above-average offensive season. Each of these guys is going to have every opportunity to show they’re an above-average hitter. But can they?

Manager Oliver Marmol has had a pretty consistent batting order so far. So we’ll go in that order, starting with the rookie who has already won the hearts of Cardinals fans.

2B JJ Wetherholt (2025 OPS+: Minors)
It would be impossible to script a better first two games of Wetherholt’s career than the way his turned out: A homer to Freese’s Landing in center field for his first big league hit on Opening Day, and a walkoff two-run single in his second game. Wetherholt’s bat-to-ball skills and his plate coverage are his primary attributes as a hitter, but as we saw with that first homer, he has more pop than many realize; there’s no reason to think he won’t be a 20-homer hitter at some point, maybe even this year. He’s not walking much yet, only two walks in six games, less than you’d like from your leadoff hitter, but aside from his two strikeouts on Wednesday, he is consistently making contact. He had just three strikeouts coming into that game. He will have peaks and valleys like any rookie, but there’s a reason he’s one of the favorites for the Rookie of the Year Award. This will be the first of many, many above-average offensive seasons for him. Above 100 OPS+? Yes.

DH/C Iván Herrera (2025 OPS+: 137)
Herrera was terrific last year, to the point that the biggest question this offseason was not whether the Cardinals would be constructing their lineup around him, but whether they would do so with him as a catcher, a designated hitter or even playing somewhere else. He played left field a little last year, and has been talked up as a first baseman. The jury is still out on the catching, but he’s surely the No. 2 hitter for this team moving forward. He’s off to a very slow start, going 4-for-22 so far, but he’s making contact (only three strikeouts), and had a huge two-run double against the Mets on Tuesday. The Cardinals certainly aren’t worried about him, and none of the rest of us should be either. Above 100 OPS+? Yes.

1B Alec Burleson (2025 OPS+: 126)
Burleson has always been a contact hitter who hits solid line drives and has excellent plate coverage. The issue has been his plate discipline (he walked only 39 times last year), and whether or not he’d provide enough raw power (he had only 18 homers, down from 21 in 2024). There are intriguing signs of improvement on both of these so far. He’s laying off more pitches out of the zone than in the past, instead focusing on pitches in the zone, and he has seen results, launching a definitive, 432-foot homer on Opening Day that completed that Cardinals comeback. Of everyone here, Burleson, who is the second-oldest hitter in the lineup, may have the most immediate urgency to show that he can be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter right now. Is he someone who is playing first base in 2029, or will the Cardinals look elsewhere? If he can combine his bat-to-ball skills with power and a batting eye, he could make a Freddie Freeman-like leap. At the very least, he could be the best hitter on this team this year. Above 100 OPS+? Yes.

SS Masyn Winn (2025 OPS+: 91)
Winn, obviously, is not your ideal four-hole hitter. He has 26 career homers in 322 career games. He also took a step back offensively last year, though the hope is that the knee surgery he had in the offseason will help get him back on track. Winn’s defense is so incredible that if he’s a league average hitter, he’ll be an All-Star, but so far, not only have the Cardinals not seen much power, they haven’t seen much of anything. He’s hitting .125 with five strikeouts in 25 at-bats, though he did pick up his first RBI on a walk-off blooper against the Mets on Wednesday. Winn had a tough spring as well, and the only reason he’s batting fourth is that Marmol likes his left-right-left-right pairing throughout the lineup, and because no other right-handed hitter in the lineup is any better fit for the cleanup spot. But Winn is miscast here, and keeping him here puts more pressure on him to find his stroke than he necessarily needs. He should probably be moved down in the order soon, and permanently. He will likely be an above-average hitter eventually, but he hasn’t shown much yet. Above 100 OPS+? No.

3B Nolan Gorman (2025 OPS+: 89)
Gorman, after two years of intense struggle following his breakthrough in '23 (when he hit 27 homers in just 119 games), looked like a different hitter this spring. He was hitting to all fields, was laying off breaking pitches out of the zone, and was launching mistake pitches. He has carried that over to the start of the season, including a classic moonshot homer on Monday night against the Mets that reminded you of why the Cardinals were so excited about him in the first place. Even better, he had a game-tying single against the Mets two days later, shortening his stroke for the situation. It’s a little concerning that he has only one walk, though we know he can draw them: he was actually second on the team in walks last year, despite his offensive struggles. More than anyone in this lineup, this is his put-up-or-shut-up season. Honestly, he needs to put up a much better-than-average season to assure that he remains a Cardinal for the next half-decade. Can he reach the 116 OPS+ he notched in 2023? It’d be exciting if he did -- and might even put the Cardinals in a bit of a conundrum moving forward -- but at the very least, he should reach league average. Put it this way: If he doesn’t, it will be the end of the road for Gorman in St. Louis. Above 100 OPS+? Yes.

RF Jordan Walker (2025 OPS+: 66)
Oh, Walker, the forever riddle wrapped up in an enigma. The once top-five prospect was so miserable in 2025 -- he was one of the five worst players in baseball by Fangraphs WAR -- that you wondered if the Cardinals would ever be able to fix him. He looked dejected, passive and completely lacking in confidence. The new regime spent the whole offseason working with him, tweaking his swing, changing his stance, trying to get his natural tools to emerge, but for most of the spring, he looked like the 2025 Walker: On his back foot, off balance, frustrated. But an at-bat at the end of the spring, in which he successfully challenged a strike three call and then hit the next pitch over the center field wall, seemed to unlock something in him, and he was great in the Rays series before going 1-for-9 against the Mets (and looking particularly rough, in a particularly familiar way, in a ninth-inning at-bat against Devin Williams). That’s Walker for you: He has positive spells, followed by deep slumps that made you wonder if he would ever figure it out. But there have been signs of success now, which gives him something, anything, to build on. Expecting him to suddenly become the four-hole hitter the Cardinals have always believed he will turn into is unrealistic. It even seems like a reach, considering how deep a hole he had to dig himself out of, to expect him to put up a league-average season. But there is clear improvement happening. He is young enough to see it as something, at last, to build on. Above 100 OPS+? No.

LF Nathan Church (2025 OPS+: 45)
Church was a .329 hitter in the Minors last year, and the Cardinals weren’t dissuaded by a difficult cameo in St. Louis in September. There were 40-man roster reasons he was the starting left fielder over spring sensation Nelson Velázquez, but Chaim Bloom has been talking him up for a reason. He’s an ideal fourth outfielder, and that’s surely what he’ll be when Nootbaar returns, even if Nootbaar will mostly be auditioning for trade suitors once he’s back. Will Church go back to left field when/if Nootbaar is shipped off? He has a couple of months to make the case. He’s still, long term, probably that fourth outfielder either way. Above 100 OPS+? No.

C Pedro Pagés (2025 OPS+: 79)
The metrics don’t always show it, but Pagés remains the defensive catcher Cardinals pitchers trust the most, though he has had sort of a rough start to the season in that regard. You still wonder how long that’s going to buoy him on this roster, though. He’s the oldest regular starter, and despite occasional moments of power, his bat remains a net-negative: He hardly ever walks, strikes out a ton (he had 107 strikeouts last year, and 19 walks) and doesn’t hit for average. More to the point: There are three catchers in Jimmy Crooks and top prospects Rainiel Rodriguez (Cardinals' No. 3 prospect) and Leo Bernal (No. 6) right behind him, and backup Yohel Pozo is also a better hitter than he is. Pagés is a likable player who the Cardinals love behind the plate. But his time as the starting catcher sure seems like it’s got a clear time limit on it. He was off to a nice start before going 0-for-7 in the Mets series. Above 100 OPS+? No.

CF Victor Scott II (2025 OPS+: 73)
Like Winn, his defense is so good that he doesn’t have to be a great hitter, or even a good one, to provide a ton of value for this team, and unlike Winn, he can bat ninth and no one expect much more of him than what you’d normally get out of that spot. But one of the reasons he got the starting job over the now-jettisoned Michael Siani last year was because the Cardinals believed he had more offensive potential than he has shown. He started this season with a .350 average, but it was kind of an empty one, with multiple bunts, just one extra-base hit and no walks. But that he is stealing bases more freely now is encouraging and, again, the offensive bar for him is lower than it is for anybody else in the lineup. If he can ever get to a 100 OPS+, he’ll be an All-Star. But he doesn’t have to hit that number to be able to hold onto this job. He just needs to be a little bit better than he has been so far. He should be able to get there. And if he’s better than that? Look out. Above 100 OPS+? No.