Here are 3 ways Cardinals can put skid behind them

Every team hits lulls over the course of a 162-game season, but what separates contenders from pretenders is how they respond to those challenging stretches. The Cardinals have an opportunity to show where they stand after their latest bump in the road.

St. Louis is 6-10 over its last 16 games. It’s far from the end of the world, considering the club’s 43-38 record and position in the third National League Wild Card spot. But it’s also an eerily similar feeling to how things went last summer, when the Cardinals were 47-39 on June 30 before going 31-45 the rest of the season and missing the playoffs.

So how do the Cardinals get themselves back to winning baseball despite a really tough schedule heading into the All-Star break? Here are three keys:

1. Jordan Walker returning to All-Star form

Turns out it’s a lot easier to win baseball games when one of your middle-of-the-order bats is producing like an All-Star. Prior to this 6-10 stretch, beginning on June 11, Walker was slashing .303/.360/.566 with 17 home runs and 52 RBIs, leading the Cardinals to a 37-28 record. Over his last 16 games, Walker is slashing .250/.279/.359 with two home runs and 10 RBIs.

Walker doesn’t have to carry the offense, but he does take it to the next level. The return of Lars Nootbaar, who has an .866 OPS since coming off the injured list, and a strengthened bottom of the order are helping take the pressure off of Walker. But the Cardinals’ offense still rides or dies with the top four’s production, and he’s the biggest part of that.

Over the Cardinals’ last two series, Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Iván Herrera and Alec Burleson posted an OPS below .600, so it’s no wonder the offense felt flat. All four have produced like All-Star-caliber players at the plate this season, so it’s hard to imagine they won’t get that back soon. Maybe having two straight off-days and returning to his home in Georgia will get Walker slugging again.

2. Avoid the “blow-up” starts

During this 16-game scuffle, the Cardinals’ rotation ranks 23rd in ERA (4.94). Yet three of their starters (Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy) have sub-4.00 ERAs over the same period. So what gives?

When the Cardinals’ starters have had a bad outing of late, they’ve been really bad. They’ve given up five or more runs in five different starts, going 1-4 in those contests. These poor starts often put additional strain on their bullpen that has already been taxed heavily this season.

The Cardinals do not need excellence from their starters, but they do need some stability, particularly from struggling starter Matthew Liberatore, who has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) in his last two outings.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Dustin May, who had his last start skipped due to back tightness after allowing 6 runs in 2 innings of work on June 21. He had been excellent in the 12 starts prior to that, posting a 2.54 ERA.

3. High-leverage arms settle back in

Outside of Justin Bruihl, no reliever in the Cardinals’ bullpen has an ERA below 4.00 during this stretch. It’s going to be difficult to secure wins when the ‘pen can’t shut the door consistently, and lately, manager Oliver Marmol has little reason to be confident in his arms.

One encouraging sign for the Cardinals’ bullpen has been Riley O’Brien, who didn’t allow a baserunner in his last two appearances. It’s the first time he’s posted consecutive outings without allowing a baserunner since May 4 and May 7. In the 15 outings in between, O’Brien had a 6.46 ERA.

If Walker can break out of his slump, the rotation avoids blow-up starts and the bullpen finds some stability, the Cardinals should get back to stacking wins together. If not, it’ll be very difficult to keep their head above water during a stretch that has them playing the Braves (six games), Cubs (three games) and Brewers (five games) leading into the All-Star break.