If Cards want to contend, offense needs to turn up heat

The Cardinals weren’t supposed to be here.

Sitting 1 1/2 games out of the third Wild Card spot a week before the Trade Deadline, St. Louis has been falling back as of late. If it weren’t for most of the other teams in the National League Wild Card race also struggling after the All-Star break, the Cardinals’ own 3-7 stretch would look even worse right now.

The Cardinals have bounced back from rough stretches multiple times this year, so they very well could claw their way back once again. But if they are going to do so, the pressure is now on their offense to hold up their end of the bargain.

Since their combined 28-run outburst on July 2 and 3, the Cardinals rank in the bottom third of MLB in runs scored and last in batting average (.204), on-base percentage (.273) and slugging percentage (.309). The offense has been mostly ice-cold this month, and it’s preventing them from taking advantage of excellent starting pitching, which has posted the fourth-best ERA (3.39) in the Majors in July.

For the first half of the season, the success of the Cardinals’ offense has followed the performance of the top four hitters in their lineup. While the five through nine spots have provided sparks at times, it’s been up to JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Iván Herrera to lead the show.

Walker and Burleson have continued to produce at a high level as of late, but Wetherholt has crept toward league average by wRC+, and Herrera is slashing .187/.225/.280 over his last 19 games. Herrera did heat up this weekend against the Reds, so perhaps his extended struggles are coming to an end.

One of the oddest parts about the Cardinals' offense right now is that it is finding more success at the plate when runners are in scoring position. Since July 4, St. Louis is slashing .278/.323/.417 with RISP, far better than its overall numbers. This has been a trend all season, but has become more pronounced recently.

Most of the heavy lifting has been done by Walker, who over that stretch has a 1.291 OPS with RISP. Blaze Jordan has been about as efficient a run producer as you can find with RISP, collecting eight RBIs despite managing only four hits in 14 opportunities.

St. Louis would love to keep those timely hits coming, but the club has to start figuring out ways to spark the offense more consistently inning to inning. The Cardinals’ .516 OPS with the bases empty since July 4 leads to far too many innings where they go down in order.

The Cardinals are set to face off against the Cubs for four games at Busch Stadium starting on Monday. The rivalry always carries importance, but the stakes are even higher with the two clubs fighting for positions in the Wild Card race. St. Louis will need its offense to show up if it wants to win the series.

On the season, the Cardinals’ offense is far less productive at home, tied for 25th in runs scored (209) at Busch Stadium as opposed to eighth on the road (257). According to Statcast, Busch Stadium is tied for the fourth-least-favorable park factor for hitters this season and is the least favorable environment for home runs. Every position player on the Cardinals’ active roster outside of Lars Nootbaar and Pedro Pagés has a better OPS on the road than at home. Only three of those Cardinals have posted an OPS above .700 at home, while eight are above .700 on the road.

Bottom line: The Cardinals have to get more production from their offense if they are going to keep their surprise on-field success rolling the rest of the season. The Cardinals’ offense is clearly capable of shifting to a higher gear, but it hasn't found a way to do so consistently. Ultimately, their bats will dictate how far they go the rest of the way.