Recent injuries, innings limits present challenging puzzle for Cardinals rotation

Where would the 2026 Cardinals be today without the really impressive work by their starting pitching? That question is going to be put to the test over the final 30 games as they face a number of new challenges to their rotation.

Even after getting swept by the Phillies this weekend, the Cardinals rotation still ranks top 10 in baseball this season in ERA (3.95), innings pitched (688 2/3) and quality starts (47), but recent injuries to Andre Pallante and Hunter Dobbins -- paired with the innings restriction on Kyle Leahy the rest of the way -- will make maintaing that level of production a much more difficult task.

The Cardinals expect Pallante to return around Sept. 1 after the minimum 15 days he’ll spend on the injured list, but Dobbins’ injury, which the Cardinals are calling right forearm tightness, seems to be more concerning and could keep him out for a while.

Leahy, who has arguably been the Cardinals’ best starter this season, is now up to 126 1/3 innings pitched this year, which is already 38 1/3 more than he threw as a reliever last season and the most he’s thrown since 2022. The Cardinals believe that in order to keep him healthy and ready to produce in 2027, they need to manage his workload down the stretch with shorter starts or relief appearances.

As of Monday, the Cardinals only have four starting pitchers on their active roster, and finding a solution to that fifth spot while they await Pallante’s return is complicated.

Down in Triple-A, Cooper Hjerpe (the Cardinals' No. 18 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline) has been dynamite on the mound, posting a 0.60 ERA in four starts since being called up to the level. Drafted in the first round by the Cardinals in 2022, Hjerpe could make his MLB debut soon, but he is on his own innings restriction in his return from April 2025 Tommy John surgery and hasn’t gone beyond 4 2/3 innings pitched in a game this season.

The Cardinals recently signed veteran left-hander Josh Fleming to a Minor League deal, and in his first start for Memphis on Sunday, he covered five innings of work while allowing four runs. Fleming could certainly provide the Cardinals with a veteran presence, but he has not regularly started games at the Major League level since 2021.

The organization is in a much stronger spot today than it was over the last few years when it comes to young pitching coming through its pipeline, but outside of the arms the Cards have already tapped into this year, the rest of their exciting pitching depth is not quite ready to start Major League games yet or has landed on the injured list.

The Cardinals could look outside the organization and take a flyer on a veteran starter in free agency who is looking for an opportunity, or if they continue to be encouraged by Pallante’s status, they could tread water by utilizing some bullpen games over the next week and a half.

No matter what direction the Cardinals go in, there is a lot of pressure on Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, and Quinn Mathews to not only turn in quality outings, but to do so with as much length as they can provide as well. They’ll already need to rely heavily on their bullpen in games started by Leahy from here on out, and the same may be true of however they choose to fill that other void in their rotation.

That also means there’s added responsibility on the shoulders of their relievers, a group that has really struggled over the last few weeks. The Cardinals could explore refreshing that group by calling up some relievers from Memphis, and some kind of shuffle of the deck over the next week may be necessary just to ensure there are fresh arms in the bullpen. No bullpen can be perfect all the time, but the Cardinals can’t afford many cracks in their armor for the foreseeable future.

Whether it's finding greater consistency from the bullpen or their offense, the Cardinals have been lifted up by their rotation all season long, so now is the time for the rest of the club to rally around their starters and help pick them up during this stretch. St. Louis now sits 5 1/2 games out of the third National League Wild Card spot, so they don’t have much margin for error right now.

Monday provides the Cardinals with a much-needed off-day to regroup, but come Tuesday, it will be all hands on deck in order to overcome the new challenges on their plate.