Cardinals set for season-defining stretch prior to All-Star break

After every game, it feels like there's a firestorm of opinions on how "real" the Cardinals’ success is and how seriously they should be taken as postseason contenders.

With a record of 41-34, the Cardinals currently hold the first National League Wild Card spot, continuing to defy expectations placed upon them prior to the season. They’ve passed each test thrown their way so far, but they haven't faced a challenge like this yet.

Starting Monday, the Cardinals play 21 games over the next 21 days. And after their last off-day of the first half, they play 14 games in 13 days before the All-Star break. All of these matchups will come against teams currently in the NL postseason race; those clubs have a combined .556 winning percentage on the year.

This stretch begins with four games against the Diamondbacks (which marks Nolan Arenado’s return to St. Louis after being traded this offseason), followed by a weekend series against the Marlins, who carry a 14-4 record during the month of June.

Then comes a road trip to Atlanta, which boasts the best record in the NL, and a Fourth of July weekend series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. The Cardinals wrap up this stretch with five games at home in St. Louis against the Brewers (including a doubleheader) and one more series against the Braves.

Stumbling during a gauntlet like this would be understandable. Coming out with a winning record would be a statement in a contested NL race. But if they fall apart at the hands of their fiercest competitors, the clock may strike midnight on their surprise run.

If the Cardinals are able to extend their lead on their biggest competition in the Wild Card race, or even cut into the Brewers’ lead in the NL Central, they will have made their strongest case yet for the front office to add some reinforcements for the second half. But if they drop in the standings, they may seal their fate as likely sellers at the Trade Deadline a few weeks later.

It’s hard to imagine the Cardinals excelling during this stretch without being powered by their offense. Over the last 15 days, the Cardinals are top 10 in the Majors in runs scored (76), batting average (.276), on-base percentage (.356) and slugging percentage (.466) thanks to one of the strongest top four hitters in baseball and a recently lengthened lineup.

Over that stretch, both Nelson Velázquez, who was promoted to St. Louis on May 29, and Nathan Church, who was activated from the injured list on June 9, have an OPS north of .900. New starting third baseman Blaze Jordan has a .792 OPS since debuting and has driven in seven runs in his first nine games. This has lifted what was a dormant bottom of their lineup into a real strength as of late.

The pitching, on the other hand, has really struggled, posting a 5.22 ERA as a staff over that same stretch. Only four pitchers on the staff have ERAs south of 4.00 over those 13 games. The Cardinals have had blow-up starts from multiple members of their rotation, and almost the entire bullpen has struggled to hold leads when called upon.

The Cardinals' offense has certainly shown the firepower to overcome poor pitching performances, but widespread pitching struggles have a way of snowballing negative results, especially in the absence of off-days and when facing a run of competitive teams.

The Cardinals may need to consider cycling through arms during this stretch. They’ve shown a desire to keep their rotation fresh by mixing in spot starts from Hunter Dobbins, and they’ve intended to do the same with Brycen Mautz. They recently shook up their bullpen with the debut of Max Rajcic, and they have a few more arms they could turn to during this stretch if they need a boost.

By the time the All-Star break arrives, the Cardinals should have a much stronger picture of who they are. Whether they emerge from this stretch firmly in the playoff picture or fighting to stay afloat may ultimately determine whether their front office spends July thinking of creative ways to supplement their surprise success or focusing solely on building for the future.