Tarik Skubal isn't the only Tigers starter to watch at the Trade Deadline

While the Trade Deadline spotlight shines on Tarik Skubal, another pending free agent in the Tigers’ rotation is quietly becoming an enticing trade option as well.

Because he debuted during the shortened 2020 season and missed virtually two full years plus a big chunk of another due to injuries, it might seem like he hasn’t been around that long. But Casey Mize is on the verge of free agency, too.

And just like Skubal, Mize is looking like someone with the potential to make a major impact on this year’s playoff race if he’s dealt.

Scheduled to start Sunday against the Rangers in Arlington, Mize is coming off perhaps the best outing of his career, a one-hitter that saw him strike out 10 batters with no walks over seven scoreless innings against the Yankees.

Mize’s ERA sits at 2.63, well below the 4.19 ERA he had from 2020-25. ERA can be misleading, of course, but a look below the surface provides further evidence that Mize has reached another level this season -- eight years after the Tigers took him No. 1 overall in the ’18 MLB Draft.

Mize has the best whiff rate (29.2%), strikeout rate (26.9%), K%-BB% (21.3%) and hard-hit rate (34.7%) of his career, and only four pitchers have recorded a lower expected ERA, which takes quality of contact into account rather than actual results.

Lowest expected ERA, 2026
Min. 200 batters faced

1. Jacob Misiorowski: 2.09
2. Max Fried: 2.61
3. Shohei Ohtani: 2.69
4. Paul Skenes: 2.76
5. Casey Mize: 2.82

An improved performance against left-handed batters is a big reason why Mize has made a leap this season. After allowing a .266 average, a .790 OPS and a .337 wOBA to lefty hitters from 2020-25, Mize has been one of MLB’s most effective hurlers in those matchups in ’26.

Lowest wOBA allowed to LHB, 2026
Min. 100 PAs against LHB

1. Cristopher Sánchez: .157
2. Jacob Misiorowski: .168
3. Casey Mize: .202
4. Grant Taylor: .231
5. Foster Griffin: .245

He’s spurred that improvement by tweaking how he attacks lefties, particularly with his four-seamer and slider. The focus? Away. Away. Away.

Against lefties, Mize has typically lived near the outer edge of the plate with his splitter, which gets significant arm-side run. But he didn’t always follow suit with his four-seamer and slider.

That’s changed this year -- more than 58% of the four-seamers and more than 57% of the sliders he’s thrown to lefties have come on the outer third of the plate or farther outside (along with 58% of his splitters). From 2020-25, only around 42% of his four-seamers and roughly 43% of his sliders to lefties were located as such.

The change in approach has coincided with a dramatic uptick for all three pitches against left-handed batters.

And Mize, at long last, is starting to look like the pitcher the Tigers thought they were getting when they took him first overall in 2018. Unfortunately for Detroit, the breakout has come as his Tigers tenure might be nearing its end.

On the bright side, he’s given the club another coveted trade chip to go with Skubal.