How Chase Burns has dominated in 2026 -- and why it's so important for Reds

With Reds’ ace Hunter Greene on the injured list, 23-year-old Chase Burns has admirably stepped up in his place.

Through his first five starts of the season, Burns has a 2.57 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 28 innings. The talented second-year righty has flashed the high-octane stuff and results that warranted his selection as the No. 2 pick in the 2024 Draft by the Reds out of Wake Forest.

With Burns slated to make his sixth start of the season against the Rockies on Tuesday, here’s a breakdown of how he’s succeeded so far this year and why this development is pivotal for a Reds club that is in first place in the NL Central with an 18-10 record.

The following stats are entering Monday’s games.

A simple pitch mix: four-seamers and sliders galore

Burns mainly had a two-pitch mix at Wake Forest and that’s pretty much been the case during his time in pro ball. While he mixed in the occasional curveball and sinker last year, Burns is very much reliant on two pitches this season: his upper-90s four-seamer and low-90s slider.

The fastball is a monster of a pitch, averaging 98.1 mph this season with 18.6 inches of induced vertical break, which helps produce the illusion of rise. That combination of velocity and rise is extremely rare and makes Burns’ fastball play up even more.

Just for reference, there are only six qualified pitchers this season with four-seamers that average 98-plus mph with 18-plus inches of IVB: Burns, Ryan Helsley, Dylan Cease, Ryne Stanek, Bubba Chandler and Mason Montgomery. That’s not surprising, as all of those pitchers are well known for their high-velo, high-ride fastballs.

That elite fastball is paired with a slider that is one of baseball’s best pitches, whether you’re looking at the pitch profile or the sheer results. At 90.5 mph, it’s the fifth-fastest slider (minimum 50 pitches) and features above-average drop.

And from a results standpoint, few pitches have been as dominant this season. Hitters have whiffed on 47 percent of swings against Burns’ slider and have produced six hits in 45 at-bats, good for a .133 average. His 20 strikeouts on the pitch are tied for the seventh-most on any single pitch type this season.

Burns has mixed in a changeup this year but he’s thrown it a grand total of 29 times, accounting for 6.7 percent of his pitch mix. With many starting pitchers opting for deeper pitch mixes, Burns is sort of bucking the trend as a two-pitch starter, but it’s not completely abnormal. Spencer Strider, for example, dominated in his first few years with the same elite fastball-slider combo.

Burns’ importance to the 2026 club

The Reds grabbed the third NL Wild Card spot last year thanks to an excellent rotation. Given that the Reds have been one of baseball’s best teams in 2026, one might assume the starters have been great yet again.

Reds starters have been a bottom 10 unit by ERA (4.48) and several other ERA indicators. It’s been a collective struggle in terms of on-field performance and injuries for many of the key Reds starting pitchers.

Greene likely won’t return until July at the earliest due to right elbow surgery. Andrew Abbott, a 2025 All-Star who finished eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting, has seen his ERA skyrocket from 2.87 last year to 6.59 this season. Nick Lodolo (3.33 ERA in 156 2/3 innings last season) is still rehabbing from a finger blister but is progressing towards making his season debut in May. Brady Singer has also seen his ERA jump from 4.03 to 4.97.

That’s why Burns’ breakout has been so pivotal. Between Burns and Rhett Lowder, another former top prospect taking a big step forward (3.18 ERA in six starts), the Reds have received key contributions from two of their top young starters.

This context places even more importance on Burns. Burns (and Lowder, for that matter) will surely be on some kind of innings limit, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon opined before the season, but even 100-plus innings at his current level could swing the fate of the Reds’ season.

Burns has the stuff, results, prospect pedigree and overall profile to be a legitimate No. 1 starting pitcher. Perhaps, he’s making that jump this year. If that happens, the Reds will find themselves in an enviable position for 2026 and beyond.