Chipper, Thome among those joining HOF ballot in '18
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Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Ivan Rodriguez officially joined the Hall of Fame's Class of 2017 on Wednesday, and while those players won't actually be inducted until July 30, it's never too early to look ahead at who might follow them in '18.
Holdovers on the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) ballot -- including near-misses Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero -- already have received plenty of attention in the recent months. So let's turn our focus to those who will become eligible for the first time. To do so, players must be retired for five full seasons -- in other words, have last played in 2012 -- and have spent 10 seasons in the Majors.
Here is a look at possible newcomers to the ballot, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Players are listed with their career wins above replacement (WAR).
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BOUND FOR COOPERSTOWN
Chipper Jones
Career WAR: 85.0
If there is just one first-ballot selection on this list, Jones is it, following a decorated 19-season career with the Braves in which he established himself as one of the best third basemen and best switch-hitters in history. Among the former group, he ranks sixth in WAR. Among the latter, Jones ranks third in homers (468) and second in RBIs (1,623), plus second in OPS+ (141), with a minimum of 8,000 plate appearances. He cleared a .300/.400/.500 slash line for his career, won a National League MVP Award (1999) and batting title (2008) and made eight All-Star teams.
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Jim Thome
Career WAR: 72.9
Many other sluggers of his era have struggled in the voting, but Thome does have a case quite similar to that of Frank Thomas (73.7 WAR), another popular first baseman/DH who largely steered clear of PED suspicions. Thomas, who sailed in on the first ballot in 2014, was the better hitter for average and built a 156 to 147 edge in OPS+. Thome has the advantage in homers (612 to 521), putting him seventh in history in that category. Otherwise, the two put together remarkably similar stat lines.
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ON THE BORDER
Scott Rolen
Career WAR: 70.0
BBWAA voters historically have been tough on third basemen, electing only five since 1950, with a worthy candidate in Ron Santo (70.4 WAR) never coming close, though the Golden Era Committee later rectified that. Yet of players who have spent the majority of their careers at the hot corner, Rolen ranks ninth in WAR. He won the NL Rookie of the Year Award for the Phillies in 1997, made seven All-Star teams, rode his excellent defense to eight Gold Glove Awards and posted a career 122 OPS+ with more than 300 homers. Unfortunately for Rolen, injuries helped limit him to less than 135 games in 10 of his 17 seasons.
Andruw Jones
Career WAR: 62.8
Advanced defensive metrics are far from perfect, but Jones does have a huge all-time lead in Total Zone fielding runs as a center fielder, a stat that goes back to 1954 (Willie Mays' third season). He also ranks in the top 20 among all players in defensive WAR and won 10 straight Gold Glove Awards from 1998-2007. At the plate, Jones slammed 434 home runs, including 51 in 2005, and his 111 OPS+ is about the same as what Lou Brock, Cal Ripken and Craig Biggio produced. However, it's worth keeping in mind that fellow center fielder Kenny Lofton (68.2 WAR) fell off the ballot in his first year in 2013.
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Omar Vizquel
Career WAR: 45.3
Like Jones, Vizquel was an elite defensive player. His 11 Gold Glove Awards at shortstop trail only Ozzie Smith, and Vizquel played more games at the position than anyone in history. He ranks fifth all-time among shortstops in Total Zone runs and ninth among all players in defensive WAR. Vizquel also stuck around until he was 45 and collected 2,877 hits and 404 steals, and while he posted an above-average OPS+ only twice in 24 seasons, his career mark (82) falls in the same range as Hall of Fame middle infielders Luis Aparicio (82), Bill Mazeroski (84) and Smith (87).
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MAKING A CASE
Johnny Damon
Career WAR: 56.0
Damon hit for average, he walked nearly as much as he struck out, he was a threat on the bases and he had good pop in his bat. Along with Paul Molitor and Jimmy Rollins, he is one of three players to reach each of these round numbers: 500 doubles, 400 steals, 200 homers and 100 triples. Damon also played a key role for two championship teams, hitting .326/.370/.535 in the Fall Classic for the 2004 Red Sox and '09 Yankees. On the other hand, his bat was only a bit above average overall (104 OPS+), and his defense in center rated poorly. The fact that Lofton and Jim Edmonds (60.3 WAR) found no traction on the ballot doesn't bode well.
Johan Santana
Career WAR: 51.4
The left-hander is still only 37, and he still hasn't given up on making it back to the Majors. If he doesn't, he will proceed as a pitcher whose candidacy is based entirely on a short peak that was truly impressive. Santana won two AL Cy Young Awards (2004, '06), finished third two other times and claimed three ERA titles. His four seasons of 7.0+ pitching WAR matches Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax and Bob Feller. Unfortunately for Santana, he didn't start more than 18 MLB games in a year until he was 25, and injuries have held him to 21 starts past his age-31 campaign.
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Jamie Moyer
Career WAR: 50.4
Moyer sits at the opposite end of the spectrum from Santana, in that he rarely performed like a star but survived in the Majors for 25 seasons. At age 49, he became the oldest pitcher to win a Major League game. That longevity is incredible in its own right, and it allowed Moyer to rank 16th all-time in starts (638), and in the top 40 in innings (4,074), wins (269) and strikeouts (2,441). The flip side is that Moyer also has allowed the third-most earned runs and most homers in history, with a modest 103 ERA+.
OTHER NOTABLES
Carlos Zambrano (44.6 WAR)
He last pitched at age 31, but from 2003-09, he trailed only Santana and Roy Halladay in pitching WAR. Big Z also was a highly dangerous hitter, smacking 24 home runs.
Chris Carpenter (34.5 WAR)
A late bloomer, Carpenter later was plagued by injuries. The righty was tremendous when healthy for the Cardinals from 2004-12, going 95-44 with a 133 ERA+, an NL Cy Young Award (2005) and two World Series rings.
Livan Hernandez (31.1 WAR)
The rubber-armed righty started at least 29 games every year from 1998-2011, averaged 216 innings over that span and appeared for nine franchises.
Orlando Hudson (30.9 WAR)
The O-Dog averaged 3.7 WAR from 2003-10, combining a league-average bat with defense that won him four Gold Glove Awards.
Kevin Millwood (29.4 WAR)
He never replicated his terrific age-24 season in 1999 (18-7, 2.68 ERA, third in NL Cy Young Award voting), but he still carved out a solid 16-year career.
Carlos Lee (28.2 WAR)
The three-time All-Star outfielder leads all players from Panama in doubles (469), homers (358), RBIs (1,363) and slugging (.483).
Kerry Wood (27.7 WAR)
As a 21-year-old, he won the NL Rookie of the Year Award, struck out 12.6 batters per nine innings and pitched one of the most dominant games of all time. Then injuries struck.
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Ben Sheets (23.4 WAR)
His arm limited him to less than 200 innings after his age-29 season, but from 2004-08, he posted a 134 ERA+ and a 5.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio that led all pitchers with 100-plus starts.
Hideki Matsui (21.3 WAR)
After coming over from Japan as a 29-year-old rookie, Matsui produced a 125 OPS+ over his first five seasons with the Yankees and drove in more than 100 runs four times. He later took World Series MVP honors in 2009.
More eligible players
Jack Wilson, Adam Kennedy, Aubrey Huff, Jeff Suppan, Francisco Cordero, Carl Pavano, Jason Isringhausen, Miguel Batista, Brian Fuentes, Brad Lidge, Scott Podsednik, Guillermo Mota.