Draft stock watch: Cholowsky, Lebron impress; pair of college arms have career starts

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As conference play rolls on, a consistent theme has emerged: many of the top college hitting prospects are struggling to meet expectations. This week’s rundown highlights both those trending up and a few top talents still searching for consistency.

Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA

Rank: BA 1, MLB 1
This Week: .294/.409/.647, 5-for-17, 3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 1 HBP, 3 BB, 2 SO, 1 SF, 1 GDP
Overall: .336/.464/.679, 46-for-137, 47 R, 8 2B, 13 HR, 42 RBIs, 22 BB, 21 SO, 1-for-1 SB

Cholowsky turned in another solid week, homering twice in UCLA’s mid-week win over Cal State Fullerton before a quieter weekend (two singles) in a sweep of Rutgers. His numbers are slightly down from last year’s .353/.480/.710 slash line, but in a class where few college bats are dominating, his consistency continues to stand out.

Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Rank: BA 3, MLB 14
This Week: ND, 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 SO
Overall: 6-0, 0.63 ERA, 9 GS, 57.1 IP, 27 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 18 BB, 71 SO

Coming off a 118-pitch complete game, Flora was pulled after five innings and 91 pitches on Friday against UC San Diego. He has now gone five straight starts without allowing an earned run, but he was nowhere close to being at his best on Friday. He sat 94-96 mph but struggled to command the fastball (59% strikes, one whiff), leaning more heavily on his slider and changeup.

Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama

Rank: BA 4, MLB 3
This Week: .333/.400/.444, 6-for-18, 5 R, 2 2B, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 5-for-5 SB
Overall: .271/.398/.549, 39-for-144, 41 R, 7 2B, 11 HR, 30 RBIs, 22 BB, 33 SO, 29-for-29 SB

Lebron needed a weekend like this. So far, his season is a carbon copy of his sophomore year, where he started strong but struggled to hit SEC pitching. Concerns about how he’ll handle top-notch competition are still swirling this year, as he’s hitting .230/.309/.426 in SEC play. Lebron’s 19.1% strikeout rate in SEC play is manageable, but he’s not making much of an impact, and his defensive inconsistency remains an issue. He has 13 errors and a .923 fielding percentage.

Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech

Rank: BA 5, MLB 12
This Week: .353/.450/.647, 6-for-17, 5 R, 3B, HR, 6 RBIs, 3 BB, 3 SO
Overall: .398/.519/.789, 51-for-128, 49 R, 10 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 45 RBIs, 29 BB, 21 SO, 7-for-7 SB

While many top college bats have disappointed, Lackey is exceeding expectations. He turned in another strong weekend in a key ACC sweep of Florida State. Lackey ranks fifth in the ACC in batting average, slugging percentage and home runs, and he’s sixth in on-base percentage.

Lackey is doing that while also helping lead the Yellow Jackets to the third-best ERA in the ACC (4.11) as the team’s primary catcher.

A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia

Rank: BA 12, MLB 15
This Week: .235/.409/.412, 4-for-17, 6 R, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 BB, 2 HBP, 3 SO, 2-for-2 SB
Overall: .324/.475/.596, 44-for-136, 45 R, 7 2B, 10 HR, 33 RBIs, 32 BB, 23 SO, 3-for-3 SB

Gracia homered Sunday against Notre Dame, a much-needed boost to his sagging power numbers. After hitting eight homers by March 14, including a three-homer game against Monmouth, Gracia had just one in a 17-game stretch prior to Sunday, and he’s hitting .242/.400/.387 in conference play this year. That’s a concern for a likely corner outfielder in pro ball. On the plus side, few hitters in this year’s Draft class have a longer track record. Gracia hit .305/.440/.559 and .293/.449/.558 in his two seasons at Duke before coming to Virginia, so evaluators have seen him hold his own at the plate for a very long time.

Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas

Rank: BA 22, MLB NR
This Week: .455/.538/1.545, 5-for-11, 5 R, 4 HR, 6 RBIs, 2 BB, 3 SO
Overall: .358/.428/.745, 49-for-137, 39 R, 4 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 39 RBIs, 19 BB, 33 SO, 8-for-8 SB

Robbins made his mark in the heated rivalry that is Texas-Texas A&M by hitting a pair of home runs on Friday and two more on Saturday. Sunday’s game was rained out, denying him a chance for a third two-homer game. The Texas center fielder has been one of the better hitters in the SEC this year. He leads the Longhorns in batting average and home runs, and eight of his homers have come in just 14 SEC games.

Eric Becker, SS, Virginia

Rank: BA 24, MLB 21
This Week: .500/.682/.929, 7-for-14, 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 4 BB, 4 HBP, 0 SO, 2-for-2 SB
Overall: .333/.444/.583, 48-for-144, 47 R, 13 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 38 RBIs, 15 BB, 29 SO

Becker went 3-for-4 with a pair of home runs on Sunday to ensure Virginia pulled off the series win against Notre Dame. It was Becker’s first home run since March 21. Becker’s career high in home runs was nine, set last year, which is a mark he should top in upcoming weeks.

Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California

Rank: BA 39, MLB 88
This Week: W, 8.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 16 SO
Overall: 6-0, 1.35 ERA, 9 GS, 53.1 IP, 21 H, 11 R, 8 ER, 26 BB, 95 SO

After struggling last week against UCLA, Edwards bounced back with a career-high 16 strikeouts against Iowa. The Hawkeyes had no answer for Edwards’ fastball-slider pairing. He got 10 whiffs with his 90-92 mph fastball and another nine with his 81-83 mph slider. After never reaching double digits in strikeouts before this season, he has now done so in seven of nine starts.

Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA

Rank: BA 48, MLB NR
This Week: W, 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 18 SO
Overall: 7-0, 2.85 ERA, 9 GS, 53.2 IP, 44 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 8 BB, 79 SO

Reddemann transferred to UCLA from San Diego this season, and he’s immediately become the Bruins’ ace thanks to his ability to fill the zone with a four-pitch mix that includes a 94-96 mph fastball and a deceptive changeup. Reddemann actually struggled in the first, as Tristan Salinas doubled to start the first and scored two batters later. But Reddemann then retired 14 straight before walking a batter on a 3-2 count in the fifth. Reddemann then struck out the final seven batters he faced. None of those hitters reached a two-ball count.

Steele Murdock, RHP, UC San Diego

Rank: BA NR, MLB NR
This Week: W, 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 17 SO
Overall: 4-1, 5.77 ERA, 9 GS, 43.2 IP, 40 H, 31 R, 28 ER, 23 BB, 68 SO

Murdock picked the best possible week to have his best college start. Facing Jackson Flora, which ensured plenty of scouts were in attendance, Murdock dominated. He sat at 95 mph and touched 97, but it was his slider that baffled the Gauchos. He got 18 swings and misses for a 72% whiff rate with his mid-80s slider. Consistency has been a challenge for Murdock. His ERA climbed to 9.64 after a particularly rocky start at Cincinnati on March 6, but in the past four weeks, he’s been on a roll. This was his second double-digit strikeout game in the past four starts, and he had an excellent 72% strike percentage this week.