Who should the Dodgers be rooting for in the Wild Card Series?
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LOS ANGELES -- The Dodgers know they’ll need to win 11 games in October in order to successfully defend their back-to-back World Series titles. But they’re awaiting a key piece of information: Which team will be the first to stand in their way this postseason.
For the next several days, the Dodgers and their fans alike will be tuning into the best-of-three NL Wild Card Series between the Phillies and Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga., starting with Game 1 on Tuesday at 11 a.m. PT. The winner will be L.A.’s opponent in the NL Division Series, which begins on Saturday at Dodger Stadium.
Naturally, the Dodgers have not shown their hand regarding their preference between the two NL East powerhouses.
“Obviously, when you start the season, those two teams were probably picked to be 1-2 in the East,” manager Dave Roberts said. “And they're very familiar with one another, so it's going to be a good series. … All bets are off when you play within the division.”
While the Phillies and Braves face off in Atlanta, the Dodgers will be resting up and getting their work in during the bye week in L.A. -- all while keeping an eye on their potential NLDS opponents. The defending back-to-back champions believe they are built to handle any team in a five- or seven-game series, but which opponent should they root for in the Wild Card Series?
To that end, here's a breakdown of how the Phillies and Braves match up with the Dodgers.
State of the teams
The Phillies went 10-14 in September -- including six losses in their final nine games -- but they avoided a total collapse and punched their postseason ticket in Game 162. They had to play hard until the end to secure their spot, but momentum is not necessarily on their side.
The Braves also did not have the best September, going 12-12 -- although they were still in the mix for a first-round bye until the Dodgers clinched the No. 2 seed in the National League on Thursday. They dropped four of their final six games after winning their division.
Better matchup for the Dodgers: Phillies
Recent history
The season series tells a clear story: The Dodgers went 4-2 against the Phillies (+11 run differential), but only 1-5 against the Braves (-9 run differential) during the regular season.
But the Dodgers don't necessarily put too much stock in regular-season results when it comes to postseason matchups. Not only has the slate been wiped clean, but playoff baseball is another beast. Still, looking at how these teams matched up in the past is a useful data point when considering how they might go head-to-head in the future.
Better matchup for the Dodgers: Phillies
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Opposing lineups ...
The Phillies will not have Luis Arraez (left ankle sprain), who ranked third among qualified hitters with a .310 batting average, at least in the Wild Card Series. Philadelphia had notable platoon splits against left-handed starters (.678 OPS) and right-handed starters (.722 OPS) in the regular season, meaning that Dodgers southpaws Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell could be quite the gauntlet in the NLDS.
The Braves' biggest bats are more balanced when it comes to handedness, but they also performed worse against left-handers (.696 OPS) than right-handers (.730 OPS). Atlanta’s .687 team OPS in September was its second-lowest mark in a calendar month this season.
Better matchup for the Dodgers: Phillies
… and pitching staffs
Both the Phillies and Braves could hand the ball to some of the best starters in the Majors: Chris Sale for Atlanta and Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia. But there are questions beyond the aces. The Braves are down to two other healthy starters, Tyler Mahle and Grant Holmes. The Phillies' No. 3 starter is Jesús Luzardo -- who missed most of the last month due to a left shoulder injury -- and their additional options are rookie Andrew Painter and Aaron Nola, who's coming off another underwhelming regular season.
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As for the bullpens, the Phillies' bridge to closer Jhoan Durán has been tenuous, and their 4.43 reliever ERA ranked 21st in the Majors. The Braves, on the other hand, had one of the best bullpens in the regular season (3.44 ERA, fourth in the Majors), and will have to rely heavily on their relief corps given their rotation injuries.
Better matchup for the Dodgers: Braves
In an ideal world for the Dodgers, this Wild Card Series would go the distance and whichever of the Phillies and Braves emerges victorious would come to Dodger Stadium having been pushed to the limit just to advance to the NLDS.
But while the Dodgers will be watching closely these next several days, their focus is more internal than external. Their concern is more about carrying their own momentum through the bye week than which opponent will be waiting for them on the other side of it.