Anderson's rotation success gives Tigers a $10 million decision

DETROIT -- Drew Anderson's kick change is a devastating pitch when it’s on, and a career changer that he brought with him to the Tigers from last season in Korea. He entered Tuesday with a 35.4 percent whiff rate on it, according to Statcast, and induced eight whiffs on 16 swings from Nationals hitters Tuesday, including three of his five strikeouts.

When his changeup doesn’t work, such as the 1-0 pitch to CJ Abrams in the seventh inning, it’s a different sort of devastating.

“He’s very confident in the changeup,” catcher Eduardo Valencia said, “and we tried to throw it for strikes. … Sometimes, he throws it in the middle and gets a ground ball. Sometimes, he throws it in the middle, and it’s a home run.”

Abrams had taken a changeup for a strike in the second inning before homering on a fastball, then fouled one into the ground in the fourth before fanning on a heater. When Anderson left one over the plate in the seventh inning, Abrams sent it a Statcast-projected 404 feet to right field for a two-run home run.

It was the fifth homer Anderson has allowed on a changeup this season. Just eight Major League pitchers had allowed more entering Tuesday.

“Tonight, it was one hitter who looked to make an adjustment,” manager A.J. Hinch said after Detroit’s 3-1 loss to Washington at Comerica Park. “I can’t speak for CJ and what he was looking for in those at-bats, but he didn’t miss it. If there is one that pops like tonight -- it looked like that one hung just a little bit as opposed to the one that has action or movement down -- guys can get the ball in the air.

“Pitches that go in the air are dangerous. The popups are great. The fly balls are, you know, acceptable. Some don’t come back.”

Anderson’s changeup can be an all-or-nothing weapon, which is why a pitch with filthy metrics can rank in negative run value on Statcast. It’s complicated, and a metaphor for evaluating Anderson’s season -- which is what the Tigers face soon.

When Detroit signed Anderson last December, his one-year, $7 million deal included a $10 million club option for 2027 with no buyout clause. When Anderson pitched out of the bullpen for the first half of the season, $10 million seemed like a lot for a non-leverage reliever. The last two months of Anderson as a starter have shed a different light on the discussion.

Jackson Jobe isn’t the only Tigers starter to shine after the Tarik Skubal trade. Anderson has a 2.76 ERA in nine starts since jumping into the rotation after the Trade Deadline, each time allowing three runs or less. Add in a couple of spot starts earlier in the year, and his 2.61 ERA as a starter would rank among the league’s top 10 if he had enough innings to qualify.

Even in defeat Tuesday, Anderson tossed the first quality start of his Major League career. He worked into the seventh for the first time as a starter with just 65 pitches in a 1-1 game, before Dylan Crews’ infield single and Abrams’ 33rd homer of the season turned the game for good. He allowed just five hits and no walks, and showed his efficiency when pounding the strike zone.

Considering the Tigers’ recent one-year deals to fill rotation spots, from last winter’s heavily deferred $13 million deal with Justin Verlander to the previous winter’s $15 million signing of Alex Cobb, bringing back Anderson to fill a rotation that could include Jobe, Troy Melton, Framber Valdez, River Ryan and Reese Olson makes sense. Anderson’s ability to pivot to the bullpen provides some versatility. But part of that decision could also depend on what the market looks like.

“I think he’s really shown well in his ability to navigate things,” Hinch said, deferring any evaluation on roles and deals to season’s end. “Whatever role we’ve given him, he’s gone out and done his best to be prepared. That much I know, and re-establishing himself in the big leagues from being overseas is a good start.

“Certainly we’ll have a lot of time to digest what that means and where we go moving forward with him. But he can pitch. He misses bats. He’s got weapons. There’s a lot to like about him.”

For his part, Anderson said he’d love to be back.

“I love it here,” he said. “I love the staff. I love the coaches. I love the players. It’s awesome here.”