Cease among best starters available despite down season

It was only two years ago that Dylan Cease was the crown jewel of the trade market, eventually moving from the White Sox to the Padres in a Spring Training deal.

It was only natural to point to the winter of 2025-26 and project the right-hander among the top prizes on the free-agent market, but Cease’s platform season didn’t go as well as he may have hoped, raising questions as to which version of the pitcher teams will be bidding on in the coming months.

Cease went 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts in 2025, throwing 168 innings for San Diego, his lowest total since 2021. He still struck out a ton of batters – 215, to be exact – topping the 200 mark for the fifth consecutive season, while ranking in the 89th percentile in strikeout percentage (29.8%). But he also issued 71 walks – the third-highest total in the National League – to rank in the 20th percentile (9.8%) in walk percentage.

“His stuff is still elite,” an NL talent evaluator said. “His command isn’t.”

Cease was one of four starting pitchers listed among MLB.com’s Top 10 free agents, joining teammate Michael King, Ranger Suárez of the Phillies and Framber Valdez of the Astros. Suárez had the lowest ERA of the quartet (3.20) while Valdez threw the most innings (192), but Cease fanned more batters than any of them and is the only one yet to celebrate his 30th birthday, which he’ll do on Dec. 28.

Cease hasn’t missed a turn in the rotation during his six full years in the Majors, though he’s averaged fewer than six innings per outing since the beginning of 2020.

That durability should be appealing to a number of clubs looking to add to their rotation. Cease averaged more than 183 innings per season from 2022-2024, striking out an average of 221 batters during that span.

“He’s definitely a frontline starter; I thought he was much better than his line this year,” another NL exec said. “His walks and extra-base hits were up so I would want to look into it a little more.”

A closer look at Cease’s 2025 season shows a few potential red flags for some potential suitors.

• Cease allowed more runners via hit, walk or hit-by-pitch in 2025 (228) than 2024 (204) despite throwing 21 1/3 fewer innings, raising his WHIP from 1.067 to 1.327.

• While his four-seam fastball was actually up a tick in velocity (97.1 mph in 2025; 96.9 in 2024), opposing hitters slugged .420 against the pitch, compared to .387 the prior season.

• His slider also yielded worse results, as hitters slugged .374 against it this year, 117 points higher than in 2024. Cease allowed eight homers on sliders, three more than the year before.

• Cease threw 123 fewer sliders in 2025 yet still allowed more hits (64) on the pitch than he did in 2024 (54).

• While he threw nearly an identical number of knuckle curveballs in both seasons, the results were vastly different; hitters slashed .333 with a .576 slugging percentage against the pitch in 2025, up from .280 and .440 last year.

Although Cease was a reliable presence each turn through the rotation, he averaged 5.25 innings per start, throwing six or more frames in only 11 of his 32 outings.

“He is your definition of five-and-dive,” an NL executive said. “He works, he is durable and he takes the ball every fifth day, but I wouldn’t pay him big. He’s just not reliable to get you deep into games.”

There is data to suggest Cease pitched better than his numbers, too. His FIP checked in at 3.56, while his hard-hit percentage (37.5) and average exit velocity (88.9 mph) were slightly better than 2024, when he went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA.

“He's better than his 2025 ERA,” an NL executive said. “There's a little bit of the San Diego park factor, but he was also good in Chicago, so that helps. With how teams are always on the hunt for top starting pitching, his age, health, etc., I see him getting a pretty big deal.”

Carlos Rodón was coming off two substantially better seasons when he signed a six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees prior to his age-30 season. But Cease’s overall track record – he’s made 174 starts and thrown 942 1/3 innings over the past six seasons compared with 98 and 543 in Rodón’s six years leading up to free agency – is superior, making Rodón an interesting comp.

Aaron Nola was entering his age-31 season when he signed a seven-year, $172 million deal to stay with the Phillies at the end of 2023, and his six-year stats leading into free agency were remarkably similar to Cease’s:

Nola: 66-49, 3.65 ERA, 175 starts, 1,065 1/3 innings, 1,209 strikeouts, 1.093 WHIP

Cease: 61-51, 3.73 ERA, 174 starts, 942 1/3 innings, 1,150 strikeouts, 1.243 WHIP

The list of teams that could pursue Cease is lengthy; after all, nearly every club could use another solid starter in its rotation. Two teams unlikely to be in the mix are the Dodgers and Yankees, who have a plethora of starters and will likely focus their attention elsewhere, but other big-market teams could make a push for Cease.

The Phillies might lose Suárez to free agency, while the Blue Jays face the loss of Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer this winter (and potentially Kevin Gausman the following year) and the Astros appear likely to move on from Valdez.

The Angels ranked 28th in rotation ERA in 2025, while the Tigers were thin behind Tarik Skubal, who will be a free agent after the 2026 season. The Cubs drafted Cease in 2014 and traded him to the White Sox three years later; could they be inclined to bring him back?

Don’t forget the Mets, who have a trio of young starters that hit the scene late this season, but carried a 4.13 rotation ERA, ranking 18th in the Majors. President of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t typically pay big for starting pitchers, but after missing the postseason in 2025, anything is possible.

Other clubs that could pursue Cease include the Nationals, Cardinals and Orioles, while a return to San Diego can’t be ruled out, either.

Despite the potential red flags, the majority of executives we spoke with believe Cease remains one of the top available arms this winter – and that his market will back that up.

“He’s going to have to contend with a qualifying offer, but so many teams need pitching that it shouldn’t have a huge impact on his market,” an American League executive said. “The guy has two Top-5 Cy Young finishes in the past few years. He probably isn’t going to set any records, but he should do quite well for himself.”