Lee suspects pitch tipping could be behind 2nd-half struggles

ATLANTA -- Bidding adieu to a seven-game winning streak in a makeup game against a sub-.500 team isn’t fun. But doing so while watching one of your top relievers extend his second-half decline is far more troublesome.

Bryce Elder wasn’t happy with his start, and the Braves' offense didn’t do much against former teammate Anthony Molina in his third career start and first of the season. But looking at the big picture, the most concerning development in Atlanta’s 7-3 loss to the Giants on Monday was the extension of Dylan Lee’s second-half woes.

“It’s just something I'm doing with my mechanics,” Lee said. “They obviously see something. So I'm gonna just work on it, talk with our guys and get it cleaned up.”

The Braves’ hopes of making a deep postseason run would significantly improve if Lee goes through October in the same All-Star-caliber fashion as when he posted a 1.47 ERA over the 43 innings before the All-Star break. But the team has seen him post a 5.50 ERA over 21 appearances (18 innings) since then.

When Lee said, “There's something that I'm doing that they're seeing, and I'm going to clean it up,” he was asked if he thinks he is tipping his pitches.

“Possibly,” Lee replied quickly.

The veteran setup man was then asked how he could address this issue.

“It's a little bit easier to hit the ball when you know what’s coming,” Lee said. “So, I think I’m just going to clean it up and fix it.”

Elder allowed Osleivis Basabe’s game-tying homer to begin the sixth and then exited three batters later with two on and one out. Lee promptly allowed Turner Hill to hit a two-run double against a four-seamer. Hill scored two batters later on Bryce Eldridge’s single against a four-seamer.

“Dylan's been great for us for several years now,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said. “For much of this year, he’s been one of the best relievers in the game. He's going to be fine.”

It seemed like the only thing that went wrong for Lee in the first half of the season was that he didn’t gain a deserved All-Star selection. He limited opponents to a .143 batting average and had a 34 percent strikeout rate. His .213 BABIP indicated possible regression. But not quite this significant.

Opponents have scored 12 runs (11 earned) and tallied 19 hits in 18 innings against Lee during the second half. They scored eight runs (seven earned) and tallied 21 hits against him over 43 innings in the first half.

“He’s not getting away with much,” Weiss said. “He just hasn’t gotten the results. I know he’s had a pretty good workload, nothing absurd or anything. You wonder about fatigue. But he feels great.”

As the Braves entered Monday, they were feeling great about the seven-game winning streak, highlighted by a three-game sweep of the Dodgers. A lot went right during this homestand, including the improved offensive results from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Sean Murphy.

But this wasn’t a memorable stretch for Lee, who has posted a 15.00 ERA over his past five appearances while the team has won seven of its last eight. Opponents have hit .556 with a .579 on-base percentage during the stretch that has included one appearance against the Brewers, two against the Dodgers, one against the Rockies and Monday against the Giants.

Did each of these teams pick something up with Lee’s mechanics? Possibly.

But there have been two rough stretches in the second half. The southpaw posted a 9.64 ERA and allowed opponents to hit .350 with a .364 on-base percentage in his first five appearances after the All-Star break. He then held opponents scoreless over the nine appearances that followed.

Lee unleashed a 95.7 mph four-seamer to the Rockies’ Hunter Goodman on Sunday. But his four-seamer averaged 93.7 mph in the series finale against Colorado and 93.9 on Monday. Both rank among the top half of fastball averages he has produced in any game this season.

Opponents hit .125 against Lee's four-seamer and .147 against his slider during the first half. They entered Monday having hit .207 against the fastball and .323 against the slider in the second half.

Lee hasn’t been the guy throughout the second half. But there’s time for him to make the adjustments that could go a long way toward the Braves enjoying a successful run through the postseason.