Will Senga ever return to heights of rookie season?

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo's Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

NEW YORK -- It is reasonable to wonder, in light of Kodai Senga's latest trip to the injured list, if Senga will ever be a productive member of the Mets’ rotation again.

Perhaps that sounds dramatic. But consider the evidence:

• In 2024, fresh off his standout rookie season, Senga began experiencing shoulder discomfort in Spring Training that, combined with a triceps issue, kept him sidelined until July. In his first start back, Senga strained his left calf and did not pitch again until the postseason, when he allowed seven runs in five innings over three starts.

• The next year, despite a dip in the quality of his stuff, Senga again started strong before straining his right hamstring. After missing a month, he produced a 5.90 ERA in nine outings, prompting the Mets to ask him to accept an option to Triple-A Syracuse. Senga consented and didn’t return in 2025.

• This year, after wowing both team officials and rival scouts in Spring Training, Senga opened the season with two solid starts followed by three poor ones. Immediately following the third of them, he complained of lower back pain that he said has affected him as far back as Grapefruit League play. Senga is again on the injured list with no clear timeline for his return.

Asked multiple times this week for any sort of timeline, Senga, through an interpreter, called the situation fluid and said he won’t know until the medication from an epidural starts working.

“I was determined to get through it,” Senga said of his decision to try to pitch through the injury, “but unfortunately, it got to a point where I wasn’t able to.”

So here we are again. In a best-case scenario, Senga will resume a throwing program next week and be back on the mound at some point in May. But given his prior extended absences, it’s difficult to believe in any sort of best-case scenario.

Consider that when the Mets signed Senga before the 2023 season, they were concerned enough with his medical history to include a provision in his contract granting a sixth-year option if Senga missed at least 130 consecutive days due to a right elbow injury. Through three-plus seasons, Senga’s elbow has been sound. His shoulder, triceps, back, calf and hamstring have not been.

At times during Senga’s tenure, manager Carlos Mendoza has expressed exasperation with the right-hander’s communication during injuries. That much, Mendoza insisted during Spring Training, is no longer an issue.

But the Mets do have a fluid rotation picture after their top three starters of Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes. Right now, David Peterson and Christian Scott tenuously occupy the final two rotation spots. Later in the season, prospects Jonah Tong (MLB No. 42/Mets No. 2), Jack Wenninger (Mets No. 6) and Jonathan Santucci (Mets No. 9) could vie for roles. It will be up to Senga not just to prove his health, but to prove he’s worthy of a place over those pitchers.

At his best, Senga still possesses the arsenal of a frontline starter, as evidenced by the 98-99 mph fastballs he threw in Spring Training and the 41 percent whiff rate he generated with his ghost fork prior to his injury. The problem is that Senga has rarely been at his best. And he’s running out of time to prove himself.

“As a baseball player, my job is to be able to be out on the field and play for the team,” Senga said. “Not being able to do that is frustrating.”

Last winter, the Mets dangled Senga’s name in trade talks. They found no takers. After this season, he will have just one year and $15 million remaining on his contract -- a relative pittance for any teams still intrigued by his upside. How long Senga takes to return from this latest injury, then, could have implications on his long-term future with the franchise.