5 biggest questions for the Bucs this winter

PITTSBURGH -- Though the 2023 season took a sharp downturn after the early months, there was still plenty of moments that showed why there is cause for cautious optimism in the near future for the Pirates. Now, with a busy winter lying ahead, there are avenues for Pittsburgh to ensure that its high-octane spurt of success in the beginning of the year could turn into sustained capability next year.

Here are the five biggest questions that the Pirates have on their hands going into the offseason:

1. How do the Pirates shore up the rotation?
The Pirates ended the 2023 season with two reliable starting pitchers: Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. So, rounding out the rotation will be critical to success from the jump in ‘24.

Thankfully, JT Brubaker should not miss much, if any, time at the beginning of the season. He underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow at the outset of the 2022 season, and the rehab process for that procedure usually takes about a year.

Behind those three, the three players on the depth chart are Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester and Osvaldo Bido. Falter had a 6.57 ERA in 14 starts with the Phillies and the Pirates last season. Quinn Priester, whom the club views highly, had a 7.74 ERA in his rookie season, but he showed improvement in the final month of the season. Osvaldo Bido had the best ERA of the three last season (5.56), but in seven of his nine starts, he completed four or fewer innings. The Pirates need to find back-end depth.

2. How do they approach the crowded infield, especially at second base?
A small part of this logjam has been alleviated in recent days. Tucupita Marcano, Alfonso Rivas and Vinny Capra were all claimed off waivers on Thursday. But with Oneil Cruz returning in 2024 after missing the vast majority of last season, the middle infield group still has plenty of options.

If he’s healthy, Cruz will be the shortstop. So who does that leave as the favorite to play second base? Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo have seen time there. Triolo fared the best offensively last season, and he is blocked at third base by Ke’Bryan Hayes, a Gold Glove-caliber defender on a multiyear deal. He also took reps late in the season at first base as the Pirates tried to keep his bat in the lineup.

Bae is speedy, but he got on base at a .296 clip and hit just .231. Peguero got on base at an even lower rate (.286) but showed a bit more power than Bae in his 59 games last season. Gonzales has fared worst of all offensively, despite being seen as the best hitting prospect of this group upon his arrival. It’s still very early in all these players’ careers, but someone will have to step up to solidify the position.

3. Does Andrew McCutchen return?
The way Andrew McCutchen ended his return year in Pittsburgh does not sit well with anyone. On the doorstep of joining the 300-homer club, McCutchen partially tore his left Achilles tendon on Sept. 4, missing the final month of the season.

McCutchen was solid for the Pirates last year, posting a .776 OPS with 19 doubles and 12 homers in 112 games. His .378 on-base percentage helped to keep constant pressure on pitchers. General manager Ben Cherington said in October that there is a desire to keep McCutchen around, but until a deal is made, this will linger over the offseason.

4. How aggressive will the Pirates be in the free-agent market?
If the Pirates see their rise in the wins column as an indicator of a postseason contention window arriving, then it makes sense to begin to make bigger free-agent splashes in the next couple of years. Does that begin in 2023-24?

There are obviously bounceback candidates who are ideal short-term targets for a burgeoning team like Pittsburgh. On the pitching side, Jack Flaherty, who dealt with injuries from 2021-22 before posting his worst full-season ERA in ‘23 (4.99), has National League Central knowledge from his time with the Cardinals. Kyle Gibson has 11 seasons of experience and could give innings to a short starting staff despite his struggles the past two seasons.

Offensively, Hunter Renfroe has hit 26 homers or more in five of his past six full seasons. However, last year was the outlier, and he only got on base at a .233 clip. But if the Pirates see a way he could improve, that kind of power is needed in today’s game.

Or could something bigger be on the horizon? Cherington said at the end of the season that the club could be open to “a different type of target.”

5. Which Rule 5-eligible prospects do they shield?
The Rule 5 Draft is not just about acquiring, it’s about protecting. Last year, Blake Sabol was not shielded from the Rule 5 Draft by the Pirates, so the Reds selected and traded him to San Francisco. He went on to notch 73 hits with the Giants, which was 31 more than the next-closest Bucs catcher (Jason Delay), and 13 homers. Meanwhile, Pirates catchers hit five home runs combined.

Who are the big names to watch this year? Braxton Ashcraft is one. The Pirates’ No. 12 prospect was great in his truncated season in 2023 following recovery from Tommy John surgery. He struck out 63 batters in 53 2/3 innings while compiling a 2.39 ERA across three levels in the Minors. No. 18 prospect Tsung-Che Cheng is another. His numbers offensively took a step down when he reached Double-A Altoona for the first time. But he’s a speed threat when he’s on the bases, and he doesn’t strike out much.