Guardians face good dilemma with 'abundance of certainty' in rotation

PEORIA, Ariz. -- The Guardians will soon be off to Seattle to begin the 2026 regular season. That means they’re approaching decision time on one of the biggest questions hanging over them this spring.

Which of Cleveland’s six starting pitchers will be part of its five-man rotation to begin the season?

“We're still having those conversations daily, but we’ve got 10 days,” manager Stephen Vogt said before Saturday's 8-5 loss to the Padres at Peoria Sports Complex. “What I've learned about the baseball industry, now that I don't have spikes on anymore, is we need deadlines. Nothing happens without deadlines in the game of baseball.

"We're going to continue to have that dialogue.”

The Guardians’ final exhibition game is March 24. Put another way, they have two turns through their rotation remaining before Opening Day. They have six starting pitchers vying for a spot in Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen, Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick.

Those six starters inspire plenty of confidence after they collectively dominated this past September to lead the Guardians to the AL Central division title. It has inspired a different vibe with the rotation picture this spring compared to Vogt's first two seasons as manager. In 2024 and ‘25, whether Cleveland had enough consistency and depth in its mix was a question.

"I've never felt like this with our starting pitching going into a season,” Vogt said. “Year 1, a lot of uncertainty. Last year, a lot of uncertainty. I feel like this year, we have an abundance of certainty, which is going to be a different dilemma and problem. All of these guys are throwing the ball excellent.”

There’s wisdom in finalizing the staff closer to Opening Day, to get as many data points as possible. And in a worst-case scenario, someone could be afflicted by an ailment before the end of camp, which would impact the calculus. But as constructed, someone will be the odd man out.

• A fresh look at Guardians' potential Opening Day roster

Here’s what we know. Bibee and Williams will anchor the staff. Vogt hasn’t named an Opening Day starter, but it will be one of those two. Bibee is on schedule for it. He’s set to start Sunday vs. the A's, so his ensuing start will fall on Friday or Saturday. Following a five-day routine, that would place his following turn on Opening Day.

Williams is set to start Monday vs. the Cubs; he last pitched in a Cactus League game on March 6, but continued his five-day routine by pitching five "ups" in a Minor League game on Wednesday. That would line him up to pitch the second game of the season.

That leaves three spots for Cecconi, Allen, Cantillo and Messick. Cantillo has zero Minor League options remaining, while Cecconi (one), Allen (two) and Messick (three) each have at least one.

Cecconi and Cantillo have followed Bibee and Williams the past three turns through the rotation, in that order. Messick has been fifth in that order the past two times; he threw a simulated game on March 4 and started Monday against the Royals. Both outings came while Allen was with Panama at the World Baseball Classic.

On Saturday, Allen made his Cactus League return and started against the Padres, and Messick started in a Minor League game. That puts them on the same turn, but obviously doesn’t mean any Guardians' decisions are down to the two.

Allen won the Guardians’ fifth starter’s job last spring and was solid in his first full season in a big league rotation. He logged a 4.25 ERA in 156 2/3 innings over 30 games (including 29 starts). His experience is valuable.

Messick’s career high in innings is 138 1/3 (set last season between Triple-A Columbus and the Majors). A sensible path forward could see him open in the Minors for workload considerations, while opening with the five starters who have more big league experience. Messick made a strong impression down the stretch last year (2.72 ERA in 39 2/3 innings over seven starts) and has earned a long look this spring, however.

There is plenty for the Guardians to factor in over the next week and a half.

“I hope that over the next 10 days, we continue to have some really tough dialogue,” Vogt said. “It's a good problem to have. Obviously, we don't know how it's going to shake out.”