Should Guardians root for Astros or White Sox in the Wild Card Series?
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CLEVELAND -- While the Guardians spend the coming days enjoying their first-round bye in the MLB postseason, you can be sure they’ll be keeping close tabs on what’s happening down in Houston.
The Astros and White Sox will open a three-game Wild Card Series at Daikin Park on Tuesday, the winner of which will advance to face Cleveland in the AL Division Series. Game 1 is set for Saturday at Progressive Field.
The Guardians just wrapped up a memorable September in which they surged to win the American League Central title for the third straight season. Cleveland, which was .500 (70-70) entering play on Sept. 4, finished the month 15-7, which included a 9-3 burst to close things out.
There’s a balance the Guardians will strike this week as they await their opponent. They’ll work out Tuesday-Friday, and will simulate game action along the way in an effort to balance rest and rust.
The Guards obviously aren't in the business of saying whether there’s one opponent they want to advance over another. But they’ll certainly be keeping an eye on what transpires like the rest of us.
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“I don't know if it's ‘want,’” outfielder Steven Kwan said. “But you’ll definitely be paying attention, almost as, like, a pseudo scouting report. Obviously, we have the coaches that do a great job. But it's kind of fun to be a fan to see what your fate is, what your future is.”
On that note, here's how Guardians stack up with the Astros and White Sox.
The regular season
Better matchup: Astros
Regular-season results aren’t predictive of what’s to come in the postseason. But if we did go off the past 162 games, the Astros could be a more ideal opponent.
Following three straight 100-plus-loss seasons, the White Sox finished 84-78 to earn a Wild Card berth. They paced the Central for most of the summer, before Cleveland surged and clinched the division in Game 161.
The Guardians went 6-7 against Chicago this season across four nail-biting series. Eleven games were decided by three or fewer runs, and seven by one run. There were four total walk-offs. A playoff series could be a heart-pumper.
The Astros, meanwhile, won the AL West for the eighth time in the past 10 seasons. They finished 81-81. Cleveland went 2-4 against Houston this season and was outscored 28-22, but those matchups spanned April 20-22 and June 19-21. They're less reflective of the team the Guards are now.
Key hitters José Ramírez, Chase DeLauter and Angel Martínez were on the injured list during the June matchup.
The Astros can relate; they were 20-31 in mid-May while ace Hunter Brown, star shortstop Jeremy Peña and All-Star closer Josh Hader were sidelined by injuries. But they finished .500 even after those guys came back healthy.
The pitching
Better matchup: Astros
This is where the Guardians should have an advantage in either matchup. They can line up Gavin Williams and Parker Messick to pitch Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS, in some order. With the off-days built into the series, they can make two starts apiece. You have to like Cleveland’s chances in a best-of-five if those two are firing on all cylinders.
Between the Astros and White Sox, Houston has the best starting pitcher in Brown. He’s one of four right-handers who could make up the Astros’ playoff rotation, along with Hayden Wesneski, Peter Lambert and Ethan Pecko.
The Guardians, who lean left-handed offensively, performed incrementally better against righties (.706 OPS, 24th in MLB) than lefties (.675 OPS, 27th) this season.
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There’s also something to be said about how Chicago's length arms fared against the Guardians this season. Among them, right-handed starter Sean Burke had a 1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 innings, and lefty Anthony Kay had a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. Bulk pitcher Erick Fedde had a 2.61 ERA, 10 1/3 innings.
The bullpen is another potential difference-maker. The Guardians ranked sixth in MLB in relief ERA (3.54). Houston ranked 17th (4.08), and the White Sox were eighth (3.70). Either bullpen could be running hot coming off the Wild Card round.
The lineups
Better matchup: White Sox
One way or the other, the Guardians will face a team full of pop.
The Astros finished first in MLB in home runs (226), tied for fourth in slugging percentage (.417) and seventh in OPS (.732). The White Sox finished fifth in homers (211), eighth in slugging (.406) and tied for ninth in OPS (.726).
The Guardians ranked 27th in MLB in home runs (162) and slugging (.380), 26th in OPS (.696) and 24th in runs scored (678). However, the past two months are more reflective of where this offense stands heading into October.
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Cleveland ranked eighth in runs (232) and was tied with the White Sox for eighth in OPS (.731) after the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline, when it acquired Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell. Those additions lengthened a lineup that feels more capable of putting up runs than a few months ago, which could be key this series.
The White Sox have several hitters who can change a game with one swing. Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas each hit 30-plus home runs. The Astros have a hitter who can change an entire series in AL MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez. Not having to face the big lefty would be a win.
Experience
Better matchup: White Sox
Maybe this isn’t the most dominant Astros team to reach the postseason. It is, however, their latest. Houston has plenty of big-game experience after making the playoffs in nine of the past 10 seasons. Stars such as Peña, Hader, Alvarez and Jose Altuve know what it takes to win in October. That matters.
On the other side, the upstart White Sox have many players set to make their postseason debut. The experience of a Guardians team that has reached the playoffs in four of the past five seasons could be more of a difference-maker against Chicago.