Two crucial areas where Toronto could close the gap in Wild Card race

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

NEW YORK -- At this point in the season, there aren’t many secrets left.

The big stories are what they are, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s year-long slump or the Blue Jays’ cruel run of pitching injuries dating back to Spring Training. As much as this organization would love to see a complete renaissance from Guerrero to play the role of savior, the next month is about small margins in an airtight race.

One play, one bounce or one bad habit could decide the AL Wild Card race. That’s why all of the Blue Jays seem to be talking the same way lately.

“We’re doing the little things right,” Dylan Cease said. “We’re playing fundamentally well. It feels like we’re in every game and we’ve got a shot at every game, which is where you want to be.”

Nathan Lukes, just a few minutes after Cease, had the same ideas.

“We’re doing more of the little things right,” Lukes said. “We’re going from first to third. The defense is looking way better. It’s just those little things like getting the bunt down, throwing to the right bases, eliminating the errors. It’s been fun.”

These are crucial. They aren’t flashy and none of these are as fun as Guerrero hitting a 465-foot home run, but they’re going to make all the difference, especially for a team with a certain affinity for playing one-run ballgames. There are two major areas where the Blue Jays could find those inches:

This team needs to hold runners
This is a quiet weakness of the Blue Jays, and one they need to tighten up. Entering play Sunday, the Blue Jays had allowed 126 stolen bases, the most in Major League Baseball.

Brandon Valenzuela has a cannon attached to his right shoulder and Alejandro Kirk is no slouch, either, so it’s difficult to place much blame on the catchers. This means the Blue Jays’ pitching staff really, really needs to hold runners better than they have through the first five months of the season.

Cease has allowed 26 stolen bases. That’s the most in baseball, and while it’s softened by the fact that Cease escapes most jams, it’s still turning a walk into a free double at least once a start. Spencer Arrighetti is tied for fifth in the league with 20 allowed, too, even after missing some time.

This isn’t contagious, of course, and the Blue Jays do have some pitchers who do an excellent job controlling the running game, which will be a factor down the stretch. Trey Yesavage is unfortunately injured, but his quick, sudden delivery helped him hold opponents to just three stolen bases over 93 2/3 innings. Comparing his delivery to Cease’s, which is more deliberate as he glides powerfully down the mound, you can clearly see why opponents may target Cease more.

In the bullpen, Braydon Fisher is the ace when it comes to holding runners, and he’s got a knack for pickoff plays on top of it. Tyler Rogers has only allowed one steal in 61 appearances while Louis Varland has held opponents to five in 60 games, so the back end of this bullpen is solid enough.

The Rays and Yankees, could very well line up with the Blue Jays at some point in the postseason if they can sneak in, sit fourth and fifth in steals in MLB. That seems like an awfully dangerous weakness to be exploited on the big stage.

Lately? Some big defensive improvements
The Blue Jays’ team-wide defensive metrics can be misleading. They rank second in team Fielding Run Value (+39), but so much of that value belongs to their catchers. When you sort it by just the defensive value Toronto’s infielders and outfielders provide, they slip to 10th.

August has felt so much sharper, though, and the numbers back it up. Since the start of the month, the Blue Jays are the No. 1 defense in baseball at +17 Fielding Runs Saved … and they stay No. 1 even when you remove the value of their catchers.

This is a credit to regulars like Ernie Clement sharpening up their defense along with the addition of Brett Bateman, who profiles as an excellent defensive center fielder. Andrés Giménez has been brilliant, too, having his best defensive month of the season. He’s tied for fourth among all MLB players in Fielding Run Value.

Once again, if the Blue Jays want to win 2-1 and 3-2 ballgames, they need to play elite defensive baseball.