How did 2026 season predictions for Rangers play out?

ARLINGTON -- The Rangers entered the 2026 season with high expectations, with a new manager in Skip Schumaker and a new era loading up. But the club failed to reach the postseason for the third year in a row following its 2023 World Series victory.

There’s a lot of blame to go around for Texas’ shortcomings in 2026, as predictions and expectations fell short. Here’s how my predictions for the ‘26 season played out:

What needs to go right?
Original prediction: Any sort of offensive competence
Outcome: OK, they needed a bit more than that

The Rangers offense took a step forward in 2026, though you wouldn’t always know it by watching. This season, Texas ranked tied for eighth in wRC+ (102), tied for 14th in on-base percentage (.317), tied for 16th in walk rate (8.7%), tied for 18th in batting average (.242), tied for 21st in slugging (.396) and 25th in runs (673).

Not exceptional, but in 2025, they were bottom eight in all those categories listed.

The problem in 2026 is that the Rangers took a step back in virtually every other phase of the game. The rotation regressed, the defensive personnel changing nuked what had been a Gold Glove Award-winning unit in ‘25 and the middle relievers just couldn’t get the ball into closer Jacob Latz's hands at a high enough clip.

Great unknown:
Original prediction: Can Evan Carter -- 1) stay healthy and 2) produce consistently?
Outcome: 1) Yes, mostly and 2) not nearly enough

Carter played in a career-high 141 games in 2026, blowing past his previous totals. He had one injured-list stint, a right oblique strain in mid-June, but otherwise was the healthiest he’s been since ‘23.

That didn’t quite translate to on-field production, though. Carter finished the season slashing .194/.288/.315 with nine home runs and 47 walks to 114 strikeouts. He remained on the field due to his elite defense, but if the Rangers had been fully healthy down the stretch, it’s easy to see a scenario in which Carter would have been a late-inning defensive replacement for much of September.

President of baseball operations Chris Young spoke of the front office creating more competition with the roster going into 2027, both for depth and motivation. He didn’t specify position groups, but it’s easy to see that center field could be a focus.

Team MVP will be ...
Original prediction: OF Wyatt Langford
Outcome: UTL Ezequiel Duran

It stood to reason that Langford could take the next step this season and develop into the star the Rangers expected he could be. But it didn’t come to fruition. Langford’s soft tissue injuries continued with a pair of injured-list stints: one for a right forearm strain in April and again with a left hamstring strain in June. And before the hamstring issue, he looked like a star, slashing .278/.324/.500 in 40 games. From July 9 through the end of the season, he slashed a dismal .213/.339/.369.

“It was tough,” Langford said of his struggles. “These last two months were probably -- potentially -- the worst in my career. So, obviously not ideal, especially given we were in the hunt. Definitely tough.”

But in a win for the Rangers’ staff, Duran became one of the best utility players in MLB, slashing .260/.320/.419, while appearing at every position except pitcher and catcher. He was by far the club’s most valuable player, especially considering his ability to fill in for his injured teammates at multiple positions, particularly at shortstop and third base.

Team Cy Young will be ...
Original prediction: RHP Jacob deGrom
Outcome: LHP Jacob Latz

deGrom looked like the best version of himself at some points this season. But during others, he looked every bit like he was on the wrong end of his 30s. deGrom himself will no doubt beat himself up for his 5.33 ERA in six August starts and again in five September starts, which ballooned his season ERA to a career-high 4.20.

Latz, on the other hand, had a breakout season. After missing out on the Rangers’ fifth-starter job back in camp, Latz flipped it around to become Texas’ closer, finishing the year with a 2.13 ERA while earning his first career All-Star bid.

Bold Prediction:
Original prediction: Josh Smith, All-Star
Outcome: Well, I did say it would be bold

Very bold prediction on my part, especially for a player who is no longer employed by the Rangers. But in 2024-25, Smith was a first-half merchant, with a.769 OPS in ‘25 and .861 OPS in ‘24 prior to the break, before tailing off after the All-Star Game.

But a string of injuries and illnesses prevented Smith -- the Opening Day second baseman -- from getting into any sort of rhythm before he began losing playing time to Duran. Smith soon found himself in Triple-A before he was shipped off to Toronto at the Deadline.