Don't look now, but Machado's getting hot. Here's how he's doing it

2026 has been a perplexing year for the Padres’ offense, which sits last in the Majors with 379 runs scored and a .672 OPS.

Those startling numbers were punctuated on Tuesday night, when the Padres were without a position player representing them at the Midsummer Classic for the first time since 2019. There are six former All-Stars in San Diego’s everyday lineup, but only one (Ty France) has an OPS+ above league average, while the other five are collectively slashing .228/.305/.360.

Manny Machado's absence felt especially notable, given he’s a seven-time All-Star and four-time starter who had earned selections in three of the past five seasons. The 34-year-old currently holds a .290 on-base percentage, a .418 slugging percentage and a 22.3% strikeout rate -- each marking a career worst.

But Machado began to look more like himself in the weeks preceding the All-Star break. On June 20, he launched a go-ahead three-run homer at Globe Life Field in extras. Two nights later, his solo shot marked the only offense for either side in a 1-0 win over the Braves. One night after that, he ripped a walk-off hit against Braves All-Star Raisel Iglesias.

That 96-hour stretch helped ignite Machado’s bat.

Before June 20 (301 PA): .174 average, 12 homers, .604 OPS

Since June 20 (89 PA): .307 average, 7 homers, 1.069 OPS

Machado may not be a 2026 All-Star, but if he can maintain All-Star form over the coming weeks, it would make a world of difference on a Padres team which isn’t sure whether it'll be a buyer or seller at the Deadline for the first time this decade.

Here are three things to watch as Machado tries to keep his hot streak going in the second half.

Hunting heaters
Machado has fared better against fastballs than other pitches all season, which might explain why pitchers are throwing him fewer as the season progresses. Thus far in July, pitchers are offering him fastballs at a 45.8% clip, which would mark the lowest of any month in his 15-year career.

Rather than stop looking for hard stuff, Machado has actually seemed to hunt it. Since June 20, Machado is batting .450 and slugging .925 against fastballs (third best in the Majors in that span, min. 20 PA) while dropping his whiff rate on fastballs from 23.5% to 16.0%.

That fastball-centric approach comes with a tradeoff, of course. Machado’s whiff rate on non-fastballs jumped from 29.5% to 43.9%, and courtesy of Statcast’s newest metrics, we can see that his average miss distance on non-fastballs also increased from 4.8 inches to 5.7 inches.

But at least for the moment, it’s working. Machado is getting fewer fastballs, yet he’s doing more damage against the ones he sees – even if it means missing badly on some other swings. Whether pitchers adjust, especially early in counts (where Machado has thrived) will be something to keep an eye on as the second half gets underway.

Heartbreaking
Machado is once again making pitchers pay over the plate.

Prior to June 20, Machado had just a .394 SLG on pitches in the heart of the zone, as classified by Statcast. Since June 20, Machado has a 1.258 SLG on those pitches, ranking second best in the Majors (min. 20 PA) behind the Nationals’ Luis García Jr.

This shift can in part be traced to Machado’s launch angle, which sat at 11 degrees a few weeks ago -- below his career average of 14 -- but climbed up to 13 by the All-Star break. Machado’s ground-ball rate on pitches in the heart of the zone has since dropped from 40.5% to 14.3%.

The Padres have collectively recorded the second-most groundouts in baseball this year, trailing only the Brewers. Machado is already the club’s leader with 19 homers, but if he can get the ball in the air more often, it could provide a much-needed lift for the entire San Diego offense.

Coming up empty
Despite their offensive woes, the Padres surprisingly rank in the league’s top half in OBP and SLG with runners in scoring position. It’s when the bases are empty that they’ve struggled to make any noise, with a .637 OPS that ranks last in the Majors by a healthy margin.

Over his recent hot stretch, Machado has been thriving in these situations, sporting a .447 OBP with the bases empty since June 20 compared to a .244 OBP before. He’s performed especially well with the bases empty and no outs, reaching in 11 of 20 such plate appearances.

The Padres haven’t had nearly as much trouble driving runners in as they have getting runners on. If Machado continues coming through in moments when the offense is stalled, he could help create life in games the Padres would have lost during the first half.