A handful of teams may be down, but they're not out. Here's why

For the record, we don’t recommend bad records. The more games you lose early, the more games you have to make up later in order to make it to the playoffs.

You can look it up, it’s science.

But if you see would-be contenders enduring a gruesome stretch and read the accompanying notes about how the only previous team to play so poorly and win a championship was the 1882 Lowell Spindle-Shanks, take it with a grain of salt (and not just because that team name is totally made up).

Baseball history is a collection of eras, and we are in an expanded 12-team postseason era, dating back to 2022 (and excluding the 16-team playoff field in 2020 because it was such a brief season), that is significantly more lenient than any that has come before it and the only historical context that actually matters here.

Call it the Forgiveness Factor.

Just last year, the Cleveland Guardians set a record by becoming the first team in MLB history to make up a 15 1/2-game deficit and take over first place in its league or division. Heck, they were under .500 as late as the conclusion of play on Sept. 4.

Between the expanded October format and other considerations – such as the pitching injury rate, the prevalence and impact of young talent, and the balanced schedule -- we can see truly wild swings within the course of the season, and that can benefit the squads off to sluggish, slumbering starts.

There are five clubs off to abysmal beginnings that had entered the year with decent playoff odds, per FanGraphs -- the Astros at 32.8% (now 17%), Royals at 44.8% (now 25.4%), Red Sox at 60.8% (now 34%), Phillies at 68.8% (now 32.4%) and Mets at 80.4% (now 32.2%).

As you can see, their odds have been affected … but they haven’t been eliminated. Not with the Forgiveness Factor in play.

So with the help of Sarah Langs’ research, let’s jog our recent memories a bit to put these clubs’ rough starts in perspective, looking solely at the seasons under the current postseason format (2022-25).

Worst 25-game starts to make the playoffs (2022-25)

Already in the brief time this format has been in place, nine clubs that sat under .500 through 25 games have managed to make it to the postseason.

Six of those clubs sat just a game below .500, at 12-13 (.480 winning percentage): The 2022 Guardians and Mariners, 2023 Phillies and Marlins, and last year’s Reds and Blue Jays, the latter of whom reached the World Series.

The 2022 Braves and Phillies were both 11-14 through 25 games (.440) and wound up facing each other in the playoffs, with the Phillies making it all the way to the World Series.

And then there are the 2024 Astros, who were a disastrous 7-18 (.280) at the 25-game mark, only to win the AL West (yet again).

So we are pleased to inform those of you already reaching for the acetaminophen that our five flubs were all within the range of the Forgiveness Factor through 25 games:

Phillies and Royals: 8-17
Red Sox, Mets and Astros: 9-16

Turn those boo-hoos into woo-hoos!

Worst 50-game starts to make the playoffs (2022-25)

OK, if the rut continues for these clubs or overtakes others with October dreams, keep the next couple lists handy.

Even when we push it to a 50-game starting sample, we still have eight teams that reached the playoffs despite a sub-.500 standing at that point, including:

2025 Brewers: 24-26 (.480)
2022 Braves, 2023 Phillies and 2024 Tigers: 23-27 (.460)
2024 Astros: 23-27 (.460)
2022 Mariners, 2022 Phillies (reached World Series) and 2024 Mets: 21-29 (.420)

Worst 81-game starts to make the playoffs (2022-25)

How about a half-season of hopelessness? Can that be overcome?

Absolutely! In only four seasons under this format, eight teams have been meh at their mathematical midpoint and still made it, including:

2022 Guardians, 2023 Twins, 2024 Mets, 2024 Astros, 2025 Guardians, 2025 Red Sox: 40-41 (.494)
2022 Mariners: 39-42 (.481)
2024 Tigers: 37-44 (.457)

Obviously, you don’t want to overdo it. You want to at least be within one good week of .500 when you hit the halfway mark. But the Phillies and Mets both entered this week 10 games under .500, which means they were technically “only” three games below the low end of the Forgiveness Factor, with a heck of a lot of baseball between now and the 81-game mark.

Worst in-season spans by playoff teams (2022-25)

It also always bears mentioning that while porous play at the start of the season tends to get more attention, tons of teams go through similarly maddening ruts in the middle of the season and live to tell the tale.

Again, the Phillies and Mets started out 9-19, which, yes, is a pretty brutal way to begin your season. But there have already been 10 teams since 2022 to have a 9-19 (or worse) stretch at any point in the year and still reach the postseason, including:

2022 Mariners and Yankees
2023 Marlins and D-backs (reached World Series)
2024 Astros, Mets, Royals and Yankees (reached World Series)
2025 Guardians and Tigers

If we expand it to 11-17 (current records of the Red Sox and Royals) or worse, you can take that list above and also add:

2022 Phillies (reached World Series), Padres, Cardinals, Guardians, Blue Jays and Rays
2023 Blue Jays, Phillies, Brewers, Twins, Dodgers, Rangers (won World Series) and Rays
2024 Phillies, Braves, Tigers, Guardians
2025: Yankees, Blue Jays (reached World Series), Mariners, Dodgers (won World Series), Red Sox

That’s … a lot of teams, including two champs!

Again, the five flubs we’ve focused on would be wise to clean it up quickly. Just because Houdini escaped a water-filled tank after being locked upside down by his ankles doesn’t mean baseball teams should flirt with the standings equivalent of that feat.

Still, we have ample evidence under this format that the Forgiveness Factor is real. Don’t push it.

But also don’t forget it.