5 ways the Phillies can outperform expectations in ’26

The Phillies enter 2026 coming off back-to-back National League East titles, but their path to a third straight division crown won’t be easy.

According to FanGraphs’ recently released 2026 postseason odds, the Phillies are projected to finish third in the NL East behind the Braves and Mets. With a projected 87-75 record, they have an 18.9% chance to win the division and a 65.7% chance of earning a playoff spot. Their 4.5% chance to win the World Series ranks fourth in the NL, behind the Dodgers (27.5%), Braves (10.4%) and Mets (7.4%).

With both Atlanta and New York looking like strong contenders for the division and Los Angeles looming, the Phillies will have to beat their expectations to make a deep run in 2026. Here are five ways they could do just that.

1) Zack Wheeler comes back strong
The Phillies suffered a major blow last August when Wheeler, the 2024 National League Cy Young Award runner-up, was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. The right-hander underwent decompression surgery in September, starting off a lengthy recovery process initially expected to last from six to eight months. But as Matt Gelb of The Athletic recently reported on MLB Network, Wheeler might not miss much time in 2026, which would be a welcome development.

Wheeler has been one of the best starters in the Majors since signing with the team prior to 2020, and the club also lost lefty Ranger Suárez to the Red Sox in free agency this offseason. Throw in a poor, injury-plagued 2025 for Aaron Nola, and the Phillies rotation needs Wheeler back as soon as he’s healthy. If he ends up pitching a full season and remaining effective -- hardly guaranteed given the nature of his affliction -- it would be a huge boon for Philadelphia.

2) Bryce Harper has an MVP-caliber season
By his high standards, Harper’s 2025 wasn’t his best season: His .844 OPS was his lowest since joining the Phillies on a 13-year megadeal in 2019. His performance even led Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to publicly wonder whether Harper will return to being an elite player. It’s a fair question: The 2021 NL MVP hasn’t quite played at that level in the four seasons since, although Harper has still been excellent (.880 OPS, 140 OPS+) in that span.

A season reminiscent of his stellar 2021 (.309 BA, 35 HR, 1.044 OPS) would force opposing pitchers to pick their poison between Harper and 2025 NL MVP runner-up Kyle Schwarber, who slugged an NL-high 56 homers and drove in 132 runs. It would also further validate Harper’s 2023 move to first base from right field, leaving a hole in the Phillies’ outfield the team has been trying to address since. There’s no reason to suspect Harper is done being a productive player, but he can still be much better than he was in ’25.

3) Core position players make the leap
Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh have been mainstays in the Phillies’ lineup for years, but none has blossomed into a star player like the club might have hoped. All three were first- or second-round Draft picks, and all three were ranked among MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects multiple times. Now, Bohm is 29 years old, while Stott and Marsh are 28. If any of the three can turn into a truly dangerous bat to complement Harper, Schwarber and Trea Turner, Philadelphia’s lineup could gain a whole new dimension.

Bohm, whose .287 average in 2025 was his best since his standout rookie year, could stand to improve his power numbers (he hit just 11 home runs in ’25) given his likely cleanup role in the lineup. Stott, a standout defender, has yet to truly put things together offensively for a full season. And Marsh will have to be much better against left-handed pitching to be a true everyday player in the outfield, where the Phillies are hoping for more production in 2026.

4) Adolis García bounces back
The Phillies signed García for $10 million in the hopes that he will rebound after he was non-tendered by the Rangers following a disappointing 2025 at the plate. The slugger batted just .227 with 19 homers, his fewest since his rookie year, and a .665 OPS. His .271 on-base percentage was the second lowest among Major League qualifiers. With the Phillies likely set to move on from Nick Castellanos via trade or release, García was Philadelphia’s choice to take over in right field in 2026. To prove Dombrowski and Co. right, he’ll have to turn back the clock a bit.

Just two years ago, García was a postseason hero as the Rangers won the first World Series in franchise history. He slugged eight home runs during the 2023 playoffs, including the walk-off dinger in Game 1 of the World Series against the D-backs, and was named ALCS MVP. It was a strong conclusion to a season in which García hit 39 homers, drove in 107 runs and posted an .836 OPS, numbers he hasn’t even come close to in the two seasons since. Regardless of his offensive production in Philly, García will be a defensive upgrade: He was a 2023 AL Gold Glover and a 2025 Gold Glove finalist, finishing ’25 with +16 Defensive Runs Saved (tops among right fielders).

5) Top prospects deliver as promised
In 2026, the Phillies would gladly welcome positive contributions from two of their top prospects -- and perhaps a third as well. Right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter (MLB Pipeline’s No. 28 overall prospect) and outfielder Justin Crawford (No. 53) could both be on the Phils’ Opening Day roster, while shortstop Aidan Miller (No. 23) could reach the Major Leagues by the end of the season.

Of the club’s top prospects, Crawford will likely be counted on the most this season: Center field appears to be his job to lose entering Spring Training. The son of former Major Leaguer Carl Crawford, the left-handed hitter has plenty of contact skill and elite speed, although he tends to hit the ball on the ground too often. Painter, who was inconsistent in the Minors in 2025 -- his first full year back from 2023 Tommy John surgery -- might be needed to eat up innings in the rotation. If they can deliver (and if Miller can shine as a potential September callup), the Phillies’ ceiling is considerably higher.