Taking stock of top prospects

It’s a great day in prospect land when the Arizona Fall league rosters are announced. That happened on Wednesday, and if you’re like me, you’ve spent some time combing through them to see who the best guys are and who your favorite team is sending.

The best part is going out there to watch all of this talent in one place at the same time. My colleague Jim Callis and I sound like a broken record, but I will reiterate our claim that an AFL visit is one of the best baseball trips any fan can take. Even though the league has been around a long time, it’s still an under-the-radar destination. Give it a shot (opening day Sept. 18!) and look us up while you’re there.

This week’s call for Inbox questions was sent out before the rosters were released, but I did throw in a couple of queries about players who are indeed headed to Arizona at the end.

After Jim Callis did his always interesting prospect debate Inbox last week, I felt I couldn’t pass this one up. So let’s take a closer look at these two former Florida Gators, with Singer now the Royals' No. 2 prospect and Faedo the Tigers' No. 9.

Let’s start with looking at their career Minor League numbers side-by-side, since that was your claim in your question about why Faedo isn’t ranked higher.

Faedo: 4.01 ERA, 7.9 H/9, 2.3 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, .233 BAA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.51 GO/AO, 233 1/3 IP

Singer: 2.93 ERA, 8.0 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 8.4 K/9 .248 BAA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.67 GO/AO, 141 1/3 IP

They are fairly comparable, though I’d give Singer a slight edge, especially when you throw in the lower home run rate. It should be noted that Singer reached Double-A in his first full season, while this is Faedo’s second, and Faedo is about nine months older than Singer. And there’s much more to our rankings than just career numbers, or stats per level. Which leads me to the next side-by-side:

Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55

Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

The top line contains Singer’s grades. The bottom is Faedo. As you can see, Singer’s stuff is better nearly across the board. And when we line up our Top 100 and our Top 30s for each team, we’re looking at the long-term prognosis, who the scouting industry thinks they will be in five years or so in the big leagues, not the numbers they’re compiling right now. And Singer just profiles as a better starter than Faedo, which is why he’s No. 54 on the Top 100 and Faedo isn’t on the Top 100.

All that said, I do think we might have Faedo a bit under-ranked. His stuff was trending back up a bit in Double-A this year, and we’ll have to revisit that in 2020. I could see him sneaking on to the Top 100, though it might not be for long as I could see him helping out in Detroit next season for sure. But Singer’s ceiling will always likely keep him higher for however long both are considered prospects.

It’s nice that there are several to consider, right? But it has to be Sixto Sanchez, right?

I’m not just saying that because we have him ranked as the Marlins’ No. 1 prospect (No. 24 overall and No. 5 among RHP) and I want us to look good. There’s a reason the Marlins wanted him in the Realmuto trade and now that he’s stayed healthy in 2019, the Futures Game participant has kind of shown what the fuss is all about.

Even with being hampered by injuries early in his career, Sanchez has spent most of this season in Double-A and just turned 21 in late July. And he’s been dominant in the Southern League with the combination of electric stuff and command that everyone had been talking about. And if you were worried about durability, the fact that he has a 0.86 ERA in four August starts should help assuage those fears.

Marlins fans should get a chance to see what Sanchez can do against big league hitters at some point in 2020. He has the chance to pitch at, or near, the top of Miami’s rotation for a long time and that’s worth protecting.

For me, Moniak is one of the most interesting non-Top 100 players heading to the Arizona Fall League. The No. 1 overall pick in 2016 certainly hasn’t lived up to the expectations that come with being taken in that spot, but there are glimpses of what made him such an attractive prospect coming out of the California high school ranks.

The things that really haven’t come for Moniak as a pro have been the power he started to show as the Draft approached and his overall approach at the plate. For much of his first couple of seasons, he showed little ability to drive the ball, though late last year that started to show up. He’s had some good extra-base impact this year (27 doubles, 13 triples, 11 homers) and he’s run well while continuing to play solid outfield defense. Double-A Reading is a great place to hit and he’s taken advantage (.792 OPS at home vs. .718 on the road).

Overall, it’s been a very mixed bag for the Phillies' No. 8 prospect. But he’s also only 21 and spent the year in Double-A. Had he gone to college, he would have just been drafted this past June, something that needs to be pointed out for those who want to paint the "bust" label on him. I think a strong AFL stint could help springboard him into next year and help him figure out just who he is on a more consistent basis.

It’s definitely been a strange year for Lewis, the Twins’ top prospect (and No. 7 on the Top 100), especially after a huge first full season of pro ball in 2018. He’s lost his approach a bit, likely stemming from him trying to do too much. I’ll be looking for him to be working on that in the AFL and I have absolute confidence he’s going to figure it out.

Remember, Lewis is only 20 years old. His combination of tremendous tools, baseball IQ and work ethic make me not at all worried about his relatively rough year. Look for him to use the lumps he took this year to make him a better player in 2020 and beyond.