'His game speaks for itself': What's behind Bogaerts' hot start to 2026?

SAN DIEGO -- Here’s an early reason to believe in the Padres: Their superstars have largely struggled. And yet, they’re 19-11, one of the best records in baseball.

Fernando Tatis Jr. still hasn’t homered. Jackson Merrill is striking out too much. Manny Machado, just as he was getting going, was sidelined by a minor calf issue this week.

At some point, the Padres are convinced that trio will get going. In the meantime …

Xander Bogaerts is leading the charge offensively. That isn’t how they drew it up. But this is the version of Bogaerts that the Padres envisioned when they signed him prior to the 2023 season -- a version they haven’t gotten nearly enough over the past few seasons.

So, what’s changed? Simple, Bogaerts says.

“I’ve been dealing with injuries these last two years, and it hasn’t been fun,” Bogaerts said. “I’m just trying to stay healthy. … And then, I’m seeing it right, swinging at strikes, not chasing as much.”

Bogaerts almost certainly won’t lead the Padres in home runs this season -- as he currently does with five. He almost certainly won’t lead all qualified hitters on the team in OPS -- as he currently does with a .783 mark.

But it’s reasonable to think he can sustain this level of production. He’s been a 20-home run hitter four times in his career. Never with the Padres. He’s posted an OPS above .800 on six separate occasions. Never with the Padres.

“I see a very confident player right now,” said bench coach Randy Knorr, who served as acting manager on Wednesday. “He’s in a great place. [Hitting coach Steven] Souza and Xander have done a lot of work to get to where they are now. He’s just staying with it. He’s working hard every day. It’s starting to show.”

According to his teammates, Bogaerts doesn’t need the numbers to be an impact player (though the numbers certainly help). A two-time World Series champ in Boston, he’s beloved -- and looked up to -- in the San Diego clubhouse.

“His game speaks for itself,” said Merrill. “He plays hard as [heck] every day. He’s just professional, what he does, how he goes about his day.”

Added Tatis: “Everything you can ask from a person, teammate, he’s there. He’s a great teammate. And a really good baseball player.”

Bogaerts says there’s not one specific tweak that has unlocked his offense. His Baseball Savant page backs that up. Toggle between his percentiles in 2025 and ’26, and there’s not one area that jumps out as significantly better. The red is just a little bit redder. The blue is a little less blue.

He’s gotten better at the things he was already good at -- not whiffing, not punching out, working walks. He’s also gotten better at the things he wasn’t very good at -- hard contact, effective contact.

Bogaerts’ hard-hit rate and barrel rate fell within the bottom third of the league last year. This year, they’re hovering around the 50th percentile. That’s not a drastic increase. But it’s driven the results.

On Tuesday, Bogaerts launched his fifth homer of the season, a towering blast to the third level of the Western Metal Building. He says his second plate appearance was more indicative of how good he’s feeling at the plate.

“I’m swinging at strikes, which I think is huge,” Bogaerts said.

Facing Cubs righty Edward Cabrera, he found himself in a 1-1 count. Cabrera threw a changeup below the zone. It was called a strike. Bogaerts challenged -- ball two. Three pitches later, Cabrera threw a slider just below the zone. It was called strike three. Bogaerts challenged -- ball three. He would work a walk (and proceeded to swipe second base).

Through the first week and change of the season, Bogaerts was one of the sport’s unluckiest hitters. His quality of contact was excellent. It just wasn’t paying off in the form of results. But Bogaerts maintained that he would stick with the process. And sure enough, those results have turned.

For him, at least. Maybe not for everyone.

“Our record is good,” Bogaerts said. “But our big guys, they’re hitting the ball right at people. It sucks to say. But it’ll turn around. … It can probably only go up from there.”

Indeed, with an offense like this one, Bogaerts probably won’t finish the season leading the team in homers and OPS. No knock on Bogaerts, but that would probably be a bad thing for the Padres.

Still, he’s anchoring a premium defensive position and providing quality at-bats with quality contact. If Bogaerts can maintain those trends -- and if the Padres’ stars get going around him -- it should be an especially fearsome lineup.