Italy-Mexico winner to advance -- and determine USA's fate (7 p.m. ET on Tubi)

HOUSTON – Italy and Mexico came into Pool B of the World Baseball Classic looking like they’d be sparring for second place behind the Team USA juggernaut.

But when they meet in the finale of the group stage at Daikin Park on Wednesday night, both of these two proud clubs will have a chance to finish atop the pool.

And there’s a scenario in which they both advance at the expense of the U.S.

“I'm not sure what's going to happen,” Italy manager Francisco Cervelli said. “We can use the calculator. I may not need to. So I hope we don't need to.”

An Italy win would put both Italy and the U.S. in the quarterfinals.

A Mexico win would mean Mexico moves on, with the final score determining whether Italy or the U.S. advances.

That it has gotten to this point is a credit to the strengths of these two squads, both of which are trying to build off the momentum of 2023, when Mexico reached the semifinals and Italy the quarterfinals of the Classic.

Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:

When and where: Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET, Daikin Park

How you can watch: The game will air on Tubi.

The FOX Sports family of networks (FOX, FS1, FS2, FOX Deportes), the FOX Sports App and Tubi will combine to air all 47 games of the 2026 World Baseball Classic in the United States, and all matchups will be available to stream live and on-demand on FOX One. Additionally, 41 out of the 47 contests will air in Spanish across a combination of FOX Deportes, the FOX Sports App, Tubi and FOX One.

Netflix Japan will stream all tournament games in Japanese.

How you can listen: There is a free English-language audio stream available for every game.

Team results: Italy enters this matchup a perfect 3-0 thus far, while Mexico is 2-1.

The celebratory espressos have been flowing in the Team Italy dugout, as the Italians shut out Brazil, 8-0, beat Great Britain, 7-4, and then stunned Team USA, 8-6. Phillies outfield prospect Dante Nori has been a revelation, going 5-for-10 with two homers and a double. But Italy will have to make do without catcher Kyle Teel, who injured his right hamstring against the U.S.

Mexico throttled Great Britain, 8-2, and Brazil, 16-0, before losing a 5-3 heartbreaker to Team USA on Monday. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran has hit three homers and driven in five runs to pace the offense.

Probable starting pitchers: RHP Aaron Nola (Italy) vs. TBD (Mexico)

What’s at stake: In a word, everything. It’s not just that Italy and Mexico still both have a chance to advance to the quarterfinals; they also both have a chance to advance as the top seed.

An Italy win would give the Italians a 4-0 record and the top seed outright.

A Mexico win would clinch a quarterfinals berth, with the possibility of owning the top seed depending on the quotient of runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded.

Matchup history: These two clubs have matched up twice before on the Classic stage, and Italy was victorious both times.

In 2013, the underdog Azzurri stunned Mexico with a ninth-inning comeback in a 6-5 victory. Anthony Rizzo’s RBI double was the decisive blow.

The Italians pulled off another upset in 2017 with a stunning five runs in the bottom of the ninth for a 10-9 win.