Upcoming stretch critical for Cubs in determining Deadline plans

CHICAGO -- With three months remaining on their schedule, the Cubs have already experienced a season’s worth of twists and turns. They were one of baseball’s hottest teams out of the chute, dropped into a drastic offensive lull in May and have once again picked up the pace, even as a long list of injuries has piled up.

Friday offered the latest example of Chicago’s roller-coaster campaign.

The Cardinals came to town and dealt the Cubs a 17-1 loss to begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field – one game after the North Siders capped off a sweep of the Padres with a 23-3 victory. The latest loss came after Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer held court and agreed that the next month will be important in determining the approach at the Trade Deadline.

“It has been a really up-and-down season,” Hoyer said. “There’s no reason to think that’s the way the rest of the season is going to go. We could just proceed to level things out, and I hope we do. But yeah, this is a really important stretch.”

The Trade Deadline will land on Aug. 3 this season, and Hoyer has been clear that the Cubs’ priority will be to add pitching. His front office has already been working to get things done on that front, as the injuries to the rotation (Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon are on the injured list) and bullpen (a few key names on the IL include Phil Maton, Hoby Milner and Daniel Palencia) have mounted.

That was easy to see Friday afternoon.

The Cubs’ starter against St. Louis was veteran lefty David Peterson, who was acquired for Minor Leaguer Cole Mathis in a deal on June 25 with the Mets. It was a move made out of need, but Chicago also viewed Peterson as a bounceback candidate. Two other pitchers who logged work in the loss, righty Bryse Wilson and lefty Drew Pomeranz, were picked up recently via waivers and a Minor League deal, respectively.

They are not the sexy, headline-grabbing moves, but they are the kind of buy-low transactions that add depth and buy time until the real movement arrives at the Deadline.

“It’s not like there’s tons of teams that are looking to move players at this moment,” Hoyer said. “I think that’s what’s going to happen: We’ll keep making small moves and keep trying to patch holes and do those things. The hope every time is you churn through, and you find a guy or two that can really help you over the long haul.”

In Peterson’s debut outing last weekend against the Brewers, he looked the part with 5 2/3 solid innings en route to a win. The lefty was then charged with 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings in his Wrigley debut Friday against the Cardinals. Wilson was heroic in his last game, giving the Cubs 4 1/3 scoreless relief frames to save the bullpen on Sunday in Milwaukee. He gave up seven runs after Peterson in the loss to St. Louis.

That all fits right in with this season of extremes for the North Siders.

The Cubs ran to first place in the National League Central with a 27-12 showing through May 8 behind a pair of 10-game winning streaks. After that, Chicago went 7-22, had a 10-game losing streak and slipped to fourth place with a .500 record on June 10. In the last 20 games, including Friday’s defeat, the Cubs have gone 15-5.

One thing Hoyer has pointed to in the past as an indicator of potential aggressiveness are the playoff odds. Here are how the odds via Fangraphs have changed over the course of the Cubs’ three distinct phases of this season to date:

May 8
Win division: 63.4%
First-round bye: 37.5%
Make playoffs: 91.2%
Win World Series: 6.1%

June 10
Win division: 5.5%
First-round bye: 1.0%
Make playoffs: 35.4%
Win World Series: 1.4%

July 2
Win division: 14.0%
First-round bye: 7.3%
Make playoffs: 78.5%
Win World Series: 3.7%

There are 24 games left -- 13 on the road and 11 at home -- before Deadline day for Hoyer to examine the odds, and weigh those against the underlying metrics, the team’s injury landscape and the state and needs of the roster.

“The market will dictate a lot of those things,” Hoyer said. “But, of course, our play is going to dictate a level of aggressiveness, and needs as well. … We’ve got a little bit more than [four weeks] to go. It’ll be interesting to see how we play during that time. That will determine a lot of what we do before Aug. 3.”