What will Phils' postseason rotation look like after Luzardo's injury?

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki's Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Not long after Jesús Luzardo threw a two-hit shutout on Sept. 7, a question arose about the Phillies' rotation:

Where do Luzardo, Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler rank among the top trios in franchise history? According to Baseball Reference, they are one of only three trios with 4.9 WAR or better in a single season in franchise history:

• Sánchez (7.5), Luzardo (6.4) and Wheeler (4.9, entering Wednesday’s start in Washington)
• Roy Halladay (8.8), Cliff Lee (8.5) and Cole Hamels (6.4) in 2011
• Al Orth (6.8), Red Donahue (6.4) and Bill Duggelby (4.9) in 1901

Luzardo, Sánchez and Wheeler are the first trio in Major League Baseball with 4.9 WAR or higher since the 2019 Nationals (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin). They’re one of only 23 trios like that in the last 100 years.

It’s why, despite the Phillies’ many warts – a wildly inconsistent offense, a rickety bridge from starter to closer Jhoan Duran, and too many mental mistakes on the bases and elsewhere – National League teams have considered them a dangerous matchup in a postseason series.

That sentiment took a hit Tuesday, of course, when the Phillies placed Luzardo on the 15-day injured list with inflammation in his left shoulder. Luzardo is 14-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 29 starts. He has a 1.93 ERA since May 14, which is second in baseball only to Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski (1.79 ERA).

Luzardo’s injury led to new questions about the Phillies’ rotation, with Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series on Sept. 29:

Will Luzardo be back for the postseason?

Luzardo and the Phillies believe he will be. In fact, Luzardo told reporters in Washington that he “guaranteed” he would be ready for the playoffs.

“I say guaranteed, like, in my mind I can say I will,” Luzardo said. “I can’t say 100 percent: ‘Oh, yeah, I’m going to start for this team.’ But that’s the goal, and I feel confident that I can make that happen.”

But remember, this weekend in Atlanta, everybody spoke confidently about Luzardo’s ability to be back this week, only for him to be placed on the IL. So until it happens, it hasn’t happened.

Will Luzardo be himself, if he returns?

Luzardo has been the Phillies’ best starter for months, and that’s saying something considering Sánchez had a 50 2/3-inning scoreless streak earlier this season and Wheeler is a two-time Cy Young runner-up.

But can Luzardo be that version of himself in October, coming back from an injury? There is no breaking-in period in the postseason.

“Three weeks off the mound or without being on the mound might be a little rusty, you would think,” Luzardo said. “But I'm confident in myself in my preparation and I know that we're going to do all the work necessary to be ready to go that first time I touch the mound.”

Does this take Luzardo out of the equation for the bullpen?

If you’ve been biting your nails every time the Phillies’ bullpen tries to protect a lead, the idea of having Luzardo pitch Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, then coming out of the bullpen in Game 3 was more than just intriguing – it was potentially critical to advancing to the NL Division Series.

Does his shoulder injury take him out of the running for this?

What’s up with Sánchez?

Whether Luzardo is back for the postseason or not, the Phillies need Sánchez to pitch well. Since his scoreless innings streak ended on June 3, he has a 4.11 ERA in 18 starts, including a 5.06 ERA in his last five.

“I feel like I missed on a couple of pitches and they got me on those mistakes,” Sánchez said via interpreter Diego D’Aniello. “Of course I've noticed it. It's something that I have to work on and improve, but it's a part of the game. I can't think too much about it. We just have to keep going and try to improve on that.”

Sánchez said he feels healthy.

“I feel good. I feel really good,” Sánchez said. “But I’m human. Things happen.”