Musgrove, Pivetta on the mend -- what that means for SD's beleaguered rotation

MIAMI -- Help seems to be on the way for the Padres’ ailing rotation. But here’s the important question: Will it arrive in time?

Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta both faced hitters at the team’s Spring Training complex in Peoria, Ariz., on Friday. It’s the first time they’ve faced hitters since they both landed on the IL with right elbow inflammation (Musgrove in Spring Training, and Pivetta in early April).

Manager Craig Stammen noted recently that a rehab stint is presumably the next step for both, though it’s possible they could throw another live session in Peoria first. They will both require a lengthy buildup period. Still, it’s one step closer to a return -- which could come at some point in mid-to-late August.

That’s the good news. Here’s the not-so-good news: The Padres’ season might be hanging in the balance right now. With Musgrove and Pivetta thousands of miles away.

San Diego has dropped five of seven since the All-Star break and owns the worst record in the National League over the last two months. The biggest reason? A struggling starting rotation.

The Trade Deadline looms on Aug. 3, and the Padres are going to need to pick a direction. They entered play Friday four games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Unless they add a starter at the Deadline, it’s hard to envision them staying afloat until Pivetta and Musgrove return.

But here’s the catch: If they’re so far outside of the playoff picture, would they really spend resources to acquire a starter? Or would they instead trade from their pitching depth? Much of that will be determined by the next nine games, beginning with Friday’s series opener against the Marlins, another Wild Card contender in the NL.

The presence of Pivetta and Musgrove is merely another wrinkle in the Deadline plans of general manager A.J. Preller. Sure, his rotation hasn’t been up to par. But it could be a very different looking rotation come September if Pivetta and Musgrove are back.

Pivetta posted a 2.87 ERA in 31 starts for the Padres last season, finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting. He landed on the IL in April with elbow inflammation and was later diagnosed with a flexor strain.

Musgrove, meanwhile, tore his UCL during the 2024 postseason and underwent Tommy John surgery that October. He experienced a setback in March after his only Spring Training start. He posted a 3.20 ERA in four seasons with the Padres from 2021-24.

There’s no denying how impactful the return of Pivetta and/or Musgrove could be for a team with the fourth-highest ERA (4.69) from its starting pitchers. But there are also no guarantees that they would instantly revert to front-of-the-rotation-type pitchers. Elbow injuries are tricky.

And who knows where the Padres will be in the standings -- or what their roster will look like -- by the time they’re back.