Preseason awards: Predicting the Rays' MVP, Cy Young winner and more

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. -- This season will be about what’s new for the Rays, and maybe a little bit about what’s old being new again.

Their ownership group is new. Many key players are new. They’re in pursuit of a new ballpark, a “forever home” that will stabilize their long-term future. Heck, they even have a new TV home and new patches on their uniforms.

But they’re back in their old ballpark, set to return to Tropicana Field after a season hosting games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. And they are facing the same old problem: how a club with their payroll can compete against the ever-improving, big-spending behemoths in the American League East.

"In many respects, kind of surviving and thriving in this division over 162 can be a greater accomplishment than ultimately what happens in the postseason. It's really, really difficult to make the postseason in this division, let alone finish on top,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander said early in Spring Training. “We're always going to have to chart a little bit of a different course or a different path to get there and to compete. … It's always about doing things a little bit different.”

Nothing new there, right?

Let’s look ahead at what’s to come this season.

What Needs To Go Right: The stars align

You could take that in a theoretical, metaphysical way, suggesting the Rays will need a lot of things to break their way to push toward the top of a loaded division. But we mean it in a more literal sense: Their best players need to stay on the field and perform to their capabilities.

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Rays are more competitive than expected if they get peak All-Star seasons from Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz in their lineup, while also receiving consistent contributions from Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan in their rotation and reliable innings from Griffin Jax, Garrett Cleavinger and Edwin Uceta in the bullpen.

They’ll need contributions from all over their roster, and don’t sleep on the importance of better defense, but it starts at the top.

The Great Unknown: The bottom two-thirds of the lineup

The Rays’ everyday lineup should begin with three of the 30 or so best hitters in baseball: Díaz, Aranda and Caminero. After that? The answer could determine the course of Tampa Bay’s season.

The Rays should be able to hold their own against right-handed pitching thanks to left-handed-hitting veterans like Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley and Gavin Lux (when healthy) and speedster Chandler Simpson, although it’s unclear what they’ll get offensively from catcher and shortstop. They’ll need someone to step up in the middle of the lineup against lefties, whether that’s Mullins or someone like Ben Williamson or Jonny DeLuca.

Team MVP Will Be ... Junior Caminero

Let’s not get cute here. There’s a reason manager Kevin Cash said this spring they need to get the 22-year-old into the postseason.

Caminero was the Rays’ best player and one of the game’s top sluggers last season. There’s no reason to expect anything different this year. If anything, he could be even better.

Consider how much Caminero improved at third base last season. If he can play at that level for a full season, he’s already a better all-around player. If he keeps mashing the ball with his elite bat speed while adding a bit more plate discipline, he’ll take his offensive game to another level.

Team Cy Young Will Be ... Drew Rasmussen

Rasmussen’s rise was slowed by an elbow injury that required season-ending surgery in 2023 then forced him to return as a reliever/opener in ’24, but he returned with authority over the course of a full season last year. Now, he’s the Rays’ Opening Day starter.

Last year, Rasmussen worked 150 innings in 31 starts while producing 4.4 WAR. He won’t be facing quite the same workload restrictions that occasionally limited his output during that All-Star campaign, so don’t be surprised if he takes another step forward this season.

Bold Prediction: Junior Caminero will record the highest MVP finish in franchise history.

Would you believe the Rays, for all their Cy Youngs and Managers of the Year and Rookies of the Year, have never had a player finish in the top five of the AL MVP voting?

Evan Longoria finished sixth in 2010 and ’13. Díaz placed sixth in ’23. They’ve had other top 10 finishes, but never someone in the top five. We’ll say that is due to change this season.

Caminero has captured some national (and international) acclaim, and he can put up big numbers. He may not topple the likes of Aaron Judge or Bobby Witt Jr., but if he continues to get better, this could be the year he puts himself in the same conversation.