Reeling Blue Jays look to red-hot Gausman (who else?) for stability

The Blue Jays have looked to Kevin Gausman as a source of stability for years, but this might be as vital as he’s ever been for Toronto.

The club’s rotation has been gutted, with Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, José Berríos and Cody Ponce all out. Key bats like Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger and George Springer are on the IL as well. And a season that began with the Blue Jays looking like one of the World Series favorites is threatening to unravel.

Having gone 3-9 in their past 12 games while losing four straight series, the Blue Jays are relying on the 35-year-old Gausman to be a stopper. He's to make his fourth start of the season in Tuesday’s series opener against the Brewers as Toronto kicks off a nine-game road trip.

Fortunately for the Blue Jays, Gausman looks as dominant as he has in several seasons.

The veteran right-hander, who is in the final season of a five-year, $110 million deal with Toronto, has struck out 40.6% of the batters he’s faced with just two walks and a 2.08 ERA so far. His expected ERA, a Statcast metric based on a pitcher’s contact quality, along with his strikeout and walk numbers, is even better at 1.75.

Lowest xERA, 2026
Min. 50 batters faced

1-T. Kevin Gausman: 1.75
1-T. Nick Pivetta: 1.75
3. Cam Schlittler: 1.77
4. Nolan McLean: 1.91
5. Bryan Woo: 1.95

For Gausman, the ingredients are the same as always, but he’s tweaked the proportions. While he’s continued to rely on his four-seamer and splitter combo, he’s throwing the splitter more often than ever -- more than his fastball, even.

The increased exposure hasn’t decreased the effectiveness of his signature offering. Rather, his splitter has generated a 47.1% chase rate, and 12 of his 14 splitter K’s this season have come on balls out of the zone. Overall, Gausman has induced a 40.8% chase rate, tops in MLB.

Highest chase rate, 2026
Min. 100 out-of-zone pitches

1. Kevin Gausman: 40.8%
2-T. Shota Imanaga: 40.5%
2-T. Zach Agnos: 40.5%
4. Reid Detmers: 39.5%
5. Nick Pivetta: 39.4%

Gausman also has been having success throwing his four-seamer at the bottom of the strike zone, especially with two strikes. He's already collected five looking strikeouts on four-seamers in the lower third this season, with hitters seemingly anticipating a splitter out of the zone and getting surprised with a heater at the knees instead.

Gausman was still a valuable starter for the Blue Jays while throwing 374 innings over the past two seasons, but his performance was clearly a step down from his first two years with Toronto. He posted a 3.71 ERA and a 3.59 FIP, as his whiff and strikeout rates both regressed.

This version looks more like the one who finished third in the 2023 American League Cy Young Award race with a 3.16 ERA, a 2.97 FIP and 237 strikeouts over 185 innings.

With the injuries and losses mounting, the Blue Jays badly need Gausman to keep it up.