How can the Padres further stabilize their rotation?
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This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- Griffin Canning is back, Lucas Giolito is on the way, and I don’t think the Padres’ rotation situation is nearly as dire as it seemed to be about a month ago.
Yes, there are loads of question marks, several of them injury-related. But some of those questions suddenly have answers. The floor of the San Diego rotation has been raised. With some injury luck, the ceiling might be, too.
Here’s how the Padres can solidify their rotation:
Raising the standard at the back end
Canning made his Padres debut on Sunday afternoon against the White Sox, pitching five innings of one-run ball on 73 pitches. He’s not fully built up yet -- and when Giolito joins the club, it might take some time for him to be fully turned loose as well.
That being said, Canning and Giolito raise the floor of this rotation in a notable way. The trio of Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler and Matt Waldron have combined to post a 6.45 ERA this season.
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Buehler has recently begun to show promise as a No. 5 starter-type. He’s notched a 3.93 ERA across his past four starts. But Buehler shouldn’t be counted on as the Padres’ third best starting pitcher.
That’s why the Padres signed Canning and Giolito in the first place. They knew their rotation was on shaky ground. They figured it might need some reinforcements in the event of an injury or two. They weren’t wrong.
King and Vásquez need to hold it down
In an ideal world, Michael King is flanked by a couple of other aces at the top of the rotation, while Randy Vásquez is a stabilizing middle-of-the-rotation piece. This is not that ideal world. Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove remain sidelined with elbow issues.
That places an outsized burden on King and Vásquez. They’re both fine with that. Part of the job. And thus far, they’ve handled it extremely well, having each posted a sub-3 ERA.
Considering the challenges at the back end -- with length as much as anything else right now -- the Padres must be able to rely on a deep and effective start twice out of every five days. Right now, they’re getting that.
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Ride the bullpen
If you’re going to have a trio of starters -- right now Buehler, Canning and Waldron; eventually Giolito -- who are giving you questionable length, you’d better have an excellent bullpen.
The Padres have an excellent bullpen. Especially now that they have Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada healthy together for the first time all season. Bradgley Rodriguez is thriving as well. Kyle Hart has been useful covering length.
Every team says it merely needs its starter to keep them in the game for five innings. The Padres mean it. If it’s close through five, there’s a good chance they’ll win it.
Get Pivetta and Musgrove healthy
Another reason the Canning and Giolito arrivals are so pivotal: The Padres won’t be relying on Pivetta and Musgrove to return at the soonest possible moment. And thus, that duo won’t need to be rushed back into the fold.
Make no mistake, the Padres need Pivetta and Musgrove to have a fully functional and thriving rotation. But they don’t need it in, say, May or June. They need it in September and October.
Musgrove, for one, was never going to make 30 starts this season. If the Padres get 15 effective starts down the stretch and in the playoffs from him, they’ll be thrilled. At this point, the same probably holds true for Pivetta.
Of course, there are no guarantees with starting pitcher injuries. Which brings us to…
Add one more starter at the Trade Deadline
Say what you will about the Padres’ slumping offense right now. They have what they have. It’s a complete group. The bench is strong. The lineup is relatively deep. The stars need to start hitting like stars. Simple as that. There’s no personnel shakeup looming.
As for the bullpen, you wouldn’t put it past general manager A.J. Preller to find another reliever. But that’s also a fairly complete group.
Come trade season, whatever resources the Padres have to spend will be allocated toward a starting pitcher -- and probably the type of starting pitcher you’d be comfortable sending to the mound in a playoff game.
Won’t come cheap. But again -- has that ever stopped Preller?