Long-term supporting cast key for J-Rod, Mariners

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer's Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- The Mariners know all too well how generational of a talent Mike Trout is. Not only has Seattle regretted passing on him with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, but the three-time MVP has since gone on to torment them arguably more than any opponent over his 12-year career.

Trout is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, unquestionably viewed as the game’s best player when healthy. Yet as glorified as his talent is, equally magnified is his lack of postseason exposure. Trout’s Angels have reached the playoffs just once in his career, in 2014, and aside from maybe Mariners fans, his absence in October has been a massive bummer for baseball.

The Mariners believe they might have their version of Trout, signaling so by signing Julio RodríguezJulio Rodríguez&#16 to a deal that could keep him in Seattle for good. And for as transcendent a talent that they believe the 21-year-old can become, for the good of the game, it will be vital that Rodríguez gets far more bites at the playoff apple than Trout has so far.

And the Mariners seem far better equipped to fulfill that opportunity than the Angels have for Trout, short- and long-term.

The Mariners have postseason odds better than 90%, per FanGraphs, and a young nucleus that’s shown evidence that their success could be sustainable beyond 2022. The Halos, however, are 26 games out of first place and have a farm system that MLB Pipeline ranks dead last.

The Angels’ well-chronicled problems have centered on an inability to surround Trout with sustainable talent, as Shohei Ohtani can only do so much. Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245 million deal has been a massive disappointment and a good representation of the issues there, one bloated contract after another that has hamstrung the club from adding impact role players and a more robust surrounding cast.

The Mariners had their own Trout-esque situation with a generational talent not long ago: Félix Hernández, whose Hall of Fame candidacy might look a lot different had he consistently pitched in October.

Hernández, like Rodríguez, signed a record extension before free agency in huge part due to loyalty to the club, which then proceeded to struggle adding a quality supporting cast around "The King." And alas, Hernández never pitched in the playoffs.

Megadeals -- like Trout’s or Hernández’s -- can hamstring a club with such a large portion of payroll tied to a small number of players. But Rodríguez’s, at least in the early years, was specifically structured to address that very challenge, aided by a $15 million signing bonus that gave the player immediate compensation.

“It was actually one of our goals,” Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said. “As you saw, we did pay on the front end a fairly sizable signing bonus in the hope that we could better manage the annual salaries, particularly through the initial seven-year contract.”

Rodríguez will earn an average of $15 million per year through the first seven years, before club and player options come into play -- a significant salary, yet one that shouldn’t preclude Dipoto’s ability to spend elsewhere and surround Rodríguez with talent.

“As the escalators start to kick in, the annual salaries are now a little bit more ambiguous based on what he achieves,’’ Dipoto said. “But we’re betting on ourselves. We’re betting on our market to continue to grow and flourish with a team that we think is flourishing. There really is never a time where for the kind of talent that he is, we feel like it’s going to be cumbersome. At no point over the first 12 years of the contract is that even a remote concern.”

Some of that spending could come with extensions to Seattle’s other pre-arbitration players, which Dipoto hinted at during Rodríguez’s press conference on Saturday. But a path to transcending from the Wild Card-hopeful team that the Mariners are now into a consistent World Series contender would likely be tied to adding big-ticket talent from outside the organization, as they did with Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray.

Conversely to the Angels, who’ve objectively overpaid on a number of long-term contracts, the Mariners’ challenges in free agency have been an inability to consistently lure top targets -- the geography of Seattle being so far removed, in-season travel, contract offers and a 20-year playoff drought all playing factors. Getting into the dance this year, finally, would probably help the front office’s efforts this offseason and beyond.

And as manager Scott Servais joked that Rodríguez “is going to be here longer than the rest of us,” the Mariners’ long-term summons will be to ensure that, even if there are personnel changes to the roster or front office over the next two decades, Rodríguez consistently has a strong supporting cast.

Because another Trout or Hernández situation would be objectively bad for baseball.