After dropping 10 straight, can Marlins fight way back into contention?

MIAMI -- On July 9, the Marlins climbed to a season-high 10 games over .500 and were on pace for an 89-win campaign.

That projected win total would’ve been enough to clinch a National League postseason berth each year since the field expanded to three Wild Card teams in 2022.

Everything seemed to be clicking for Miami, which went 26-8 from June 1 until that point and was three games up for the final Wild Card spot. If the club kept playing its brand of baseball, October baseball was its likely destiny.

But not much is going right these days for the Marlins, who dropped their 10th straight game for the first time since June 2011 in Friday night’s 4-2 defeat to the Padres at loanDepot park.

Miami (52-52) fell back to .500 for the first time since June 19, when the club was 38-38, and sits three games behind Arizona for the last Wild Card spot.

“I have a ton of confidence in our players and our coaches,” manager Clayton McCullough said. “It's been a tough stretch, but watching the game play out, still guys were competing in the box and going like they normally do. We're not finding a way to kind of get over the hump here in certain moments in the game. So, I don't have any doubt that they'll come out here tomorrow and be incredibly motivated to come out and try to win a game and get us going in a different direction.”

Friday’s series opener followed several trends from this 10-game stretch, with each contest decided by three runs or fewer.

It starts with the offense.

From June 1-July 9:
• .256 average with runners in scoring position
• 42.4 percent of runs via homer

Since July 10:
• .157 average with RISP
• 64.0 percent of runs via homer

The Marlins have scored three runs or fewer in eight of the 10 losses, often lacking the timely hit and relying heavily on the long ball. Both of Miami’s runs on Friday came on solo shots by Heriberto Hernández and Joe Mack.

Hernández matched Liam Hicks for most homers (14) on the club, while Mack became the fourth primary catcher in franchise history with 10-plus homers in his rookie season, joining Agustín Ramírez in 2025 (21), J.T. Realmuto in 2015 (10) and Charles Johnson in 1995 (11).

With the game tied at 2 in the seventh, Kyle Stowers and Hernández collected back-to-back two-out hits to put runners on second and third, but Xavier Edwards struck out.

“I can [only] speak for myself,” Hernández said via interpreter Luis Dorante. “Every time you're at the plate, you want to bring those runners in. But I believe that's everybody's approach at the end of the day. Maybe we're trying to do too much, and that's something affecting us.”

On the mound, right-hander Ryan Gusto, starting in place of the injured Max Meyer, gave up one run over 3 1/3 innings. The difference in the game came in the eighth, when righty Tyler Zuber surrendered the go-ahead two-run homer to pinch-hitter Luis Rengifo.

Miami had a 3.80 team ERA in the seventh inning or later from June 1-July 9 compared to 4.85 since.

“All I have to do is keep pitching,” Gusto said. “Try to keep the team in the game is really the No. 1 goal.”

With just nine games remaining before the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline, this stretch comes at possibly the worst time. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix must weigh whether Miami is more like the streaking or slumping version of the team -- or somewhere in between.

History is stacked against the Marlins. Only four teams have had a 10-game skid and made the playoffs in the same season: the 2025 Guardians, the 2017 Dodgers, the 1982 Braves and the 1951 New York Giants. The 2026 Cubs are on pace to join that group.

Entering Friday, the Marlins’ playoff odds were 14.4 percent; they were 33.8 percent at the All-Star break.

“This is a very incredibly difficult game, in that it humbles you very quickly,” McCullough said. “... I think we're all just kind of going through this, and I know for myself, it'll feel bad for a little while longer. But then tomorrow, the only choice is to come back out here and be as ready and prepared for tomorrow's game to try to get us on a winning note.”