Marlins' predictions for 2026 -- breakout stars and playoff push?

This story was excerpted from Christina De Nicola’s Marlins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

MIAMI -- The underdog Marlins are ready to carry over last season’s momentum into 2026, beginning with Opening Day against the Rockies on Friday night at loanDepot park.

From June 13 on, Miami held one of the Majors’ best records (54-42) despite ace Sandy Alcantara’s rough return from Tommy John surgery and All-Star Kyle Stowers’ absence over the final 1 1/2 months. MLB’s least inexperienced club nearly snuck into the postseason. This year, it expects to join the dance.

“Winning that night's game is the most important thing, and we won't lose sight of that,” manager Clayton McCullough said. “We still have a lot of room organizationally that we can get a lot better at. We have players that need to take steps forward this year that we're counting on.”

What Needs to Go Right?
Staying relatively healthy is important for every team, and Miami is no different. While the organization has done a good job adding depth, it will be tested from the get-go with Stowers and Esteury Ruiz beginning the season on the injured list. Another key to the Marlins' success will be its young roster avoiding regression. Finally, Alcantara needs to regain the title of ace every five days.

Great Unknown
Christopher Morel, whom the Marlins signed to a one-year deal as a possible bounceback candidate, is projected as the club's primary first baseman -- a position he hadn't played until this spring. Miami hopes that Morel can rediscover his 2022-23 form, when he slugged 42 homers with a 113 OPS+. The Marlins could use Morel's power after finishing with the fourth-fewest homers in the Majors. It wouldn’t hurt to find some stability, too, since first base was a revolving door in 2025. Six different players appeared there, four of which are no longer in Miami.

Team MVP Will Be ... SS Otto Lopez
Despite significantly less time than those in front of him on the leaderboard, Lopez finished tied for the third-most defensive runs saved (seven) among qualifying NL shortstops. He also became the first Marlins shortstop since Hanley Ramirez in 2010 to homer at least 15 times (min. 111 games). Give the 27-year-old Lopez a full season at one of the most important positions and he could turn into one of the more valuable players not only on the Marlins but in the NL. For him to reach this ceiling, Lopez will need to exhibit better plate discipline and splits against lefties (.551 career OPS).

Team Cy Young Will Be ... RHP Eury Pérez
Like mentor Alcantara, Pérez is further removed from Tommy John surgery and can put that behind him. Pérez, who turns 23 on April 15, has had a better FIP and ERA+ than his actual ERA through the first 39 starts of his career. In 2025, his xERA was 3.23, and his average fastball velocity (97.9 mph) ranked in the 94th percentile. The flamethrower refined his sweeper and cutter this spring, which should improve his overall arsenal. If Miami intends to push for a postseason spot, Pérez living up to his "Baby Goat" moniker will be necessary.

Bold Prediction: OF Owen Caissie wins NL Rookie of the Year
Caissie, who showed out on the international stage for Canada at the World Baseball Classic (1.241 OPS), will be given a chance to play nearly every day as the centerpiece of the Edward Cabrera return. The 23-year-old didn't have much left to prove at the Triple-A level, so now is the time for the "Maple Masher" to translate that Minor League success (63 homers from 2023-25) to the Majors. He got his feet wet with the Cubs in 2025, so he's not green entering Opening Day.