Will the Padres trade Mason Miller? Rival executives weigh in

A.J. Preller shocked the baseball world last summer, trading one of the game’s best prospects as part of a package for All-Star closer Mason Miller.

Could the Padres’ president of baseball operations pull another stunner in the coming weeks by flipping Miller less than 12 months after acquiring him?

“As far as A.J. goes, the only thing I know is I don’t know,” said an American League executive.

The Padres are 3-9 since June 27, an alarming fall for a club that was 11 games over .500, held the top National League Wild Card spot and set only a half-game behind the Dodgers in the NL West on May 23.

After Wednesday's win, the Padres are 46-46, the sixth-worst record in the NL. They sit 14 games behind the Dodgers and 4 1/2 games behind the Marlins for the final NL Wild Card spot, and FanGraphs listed San Diego’s postseason odds at 12.1%.

The price for Miller was steep, with shortstop Leo De Vries -- the No. 3 prospect on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list at the time (now No. 2) -- headlining the four-player package that went to the Athletics for Miller and left-hander J.P. Sears. With the Padres headed in the wrong direction this season, would Preller dangle his All-Star closer out there to see what type of value he could get back?

“They have to consider it if they keep playing like this,” an NL executive said. “They won’t get De Vries type value back for him, but they’ll still do well if they trade him.”

“I think they would really have to slide in order to move him,” another NL exec said. “I’m not sure they would be able to recoup the prospect level they acquired him for last Deadline, since there are few teams that are as aggressive as Preller at the Deadline.”

An AL executive agreed with that last point, noting that “there’s not another A.J. out there willing to give up that much value.” Still, the executive believes Miller “should still command a serious return” if the Padres opt to move him.

“I would think he would be capable of two Top 100 [players] or a Top 100 and another two players that are organizational Top 10s or so,” an NL executive said. “But I’m not sure they would feel it would be worth it.”

Miller and the Padres agreed to a $4 million salary this season, avoiding arbitration in the reliever’s first year of eligibility. As a Super Two, Miller will be arbitration-eligible for three more years, the type of club control that increases a player’s trade value.

The best comparison to Miller in terms of his salary trend is Josh Hader, who was also a Super Two player, receiving four years of arbitration eligibility. Hader earned $4.1 million, $6.675 million, $11 million and $14.1 million in his four arbitration seasons, giving the Padres a general idea of what it will cost to keep Miller on a year-by-year basis.

The Padres already have some major financial commitments locked in for the next few years; Xander Bogaerts (owed $175 million from 2027-33), Manny Machado ($245 million from 2027-33), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($266 million from 2027-34), Jake Cronenworth ($48 million from 2027-30), Jackson Merrill ($124 million from 2027-34) and Michael King ($28 million player option for 2027, $30 million player option for 2028) are all signed to deals through at least 2028. With a new ownership group in place, it’s unclear whether Preller will be asked to move some salary, which could have a direct impact on his approach at the Deadline and next offseason.

“I haven’t heard whispers [about Miller being available], but I can definitely see [Preller] moving him to restock, then reloading this offseason,” an AL executive said. “He could get a decent haul; two top 100s and some mid-levels.”

One executive wondered whether Preller could utilize Miller to fill other holes on the big league roster -- the Padres are in need of a bat as well as rotation help -- or if San Diego could attach one of its other huge contracts (Bogaerts?) to Miller to clear out payroll space moving forward.

“The beginning of the end may have arrived for that roster,” an AL executive said. “The Bogaerts contract is a wreck to take on, especially since we don’t know the payroll rules for next year [under the next collective bargaining agreement].”

Trading for a big name and moving him the following year may seem unorthodox, but Preller has done this dance before. He traded six players (including James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams) to the Nationals for Juan Soto (and Josh Bell) in August 2022, when Soto was more than two years away from free agency. Sixteen months later, the Padres traded Soto -- then entering his walk year -- and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for a five-player package headlined by King.

“I had that in the back of my mind, but he did it in the offseason,” an NL executive said of the Soto comparison. “I can’t recall him selling [at the Trade Deadline] when the team was close.”

The consensus among the dozen or so executives we spoke with was that Preller is unlikely to trade Miller -- or be a seller at all -- unless the Padres’ situation gets far worse over the next three weeks.

“I don’t think he will unless they really fall out of it,” an AL executive said. “It feels like he is going to do everything he can to stay in it as opposed to trying to reset.”

“I don’t know if A.J. is ready to wave the white flag,” another AL exec said. “[He has] so much invested in this team, and the future doesn’t look great.”

Even if Preller decides to see what kind of return he could get for Miller, a huge fire sale seems like a long shot.

“They probably have lines on everyone and would only jump in something if it opened up an avenue to improve the team in another way,” an NL executive said. “I don’t think there’s any universe they all-in sell, but you never know what individual move might or might not happen.”

“A.J. follows the Jimmy V mantra,” an AL exec said. “Don’t give up; don’t ever give up.”