Reasons for Mets' skid go deeper than just Soto's absence

LOS ANGELES -- The Mets’ offensive malaise is becoming a trend that’s threatening their season before it ever really gets going. Monday, the Mets managed just three hits -- all singles -- off Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski and reliever Tanner Scott. They have not plated a run for 20 consecutive innings, marking their third scoreless streak already of at least 17 innings.

The result was New York’s sixth consecutive loss, this one 4-0 to the Dodgers, with three of the four runs coming on an Andy Pages homer off David Peterson.

"I’m good with the effort, obviously,” manager Carlos Mendoza said afterward. “But it’s hard to say here that we’re having good at-bats when we’re not.”

So why exactly has this offense been so unproductive? How is this possible? The reasons are manifold.

1. Juan Soto is missing

Since April 4, the day after Soto limped off the field with a strained right calf, the Mets have averaged 3.0 runs per game. That ranks near the bottom of the league, which shouldn’t be shocking.

Soto, as teammate Marcus Semien said Monday, “is the best left-handed hitter in the game.” Most teams would struggle without him, and the replacements who have played left field in his stead -- Tyrone Taylor, Carson Benge, Jared Young and Tommy Pham -- have been collectively unproductive. Without Soto, this offense is clearly worse.

"We miss him,” Semien added, “but we need to get him right.”

The bad news is that while Mets officials continue to say Soto’s recovery will take two to three weeks, his return doesn’t appear imminent. Friday will be the two-week mark for Soto, who has yet to begin a running program. That, Mendoza said Monday, should “hopefully happen in the next couple of days." But Mendoza also suggested that the Mets are “still in the early stages” of Soto’s rehab, and that he could undergo another MRI “if we feel like we have to.”

While the Mets need Soto back as soon as possible, they do intend to err on the side of caution. Still, Mendoza said multiple times that he believes the two-to-three week timetable remains accurate.

"As of right now,” Mendoza said, “everything that we’re seeing is kind of trending in that direction.”

2. The Mets are making way too many early outs

In a one-run loss to the Athletics on Sunday, the Mets went down in order on four pitches in the ninth. A day later in Los Angeles, they made 11 of their 27 outs on the first or second pitch of an at-bat. That furthered a trend for this offense, which entered the night with the fifth-most outs in MLB on the first or second pitch.

Asked about it late Monday, Mendoza credited Wrobleski and Scott for pitching aggressively, forcing the Mets to swing early in counts.

“We’re trying to control the strike zone, swing at the right ones,” Semien said. “That’s only half the battle. Quality of contact is something we’re all striving for. If you can control the strike zone, have quality contact, you can have a lot better results than we’re having right now.”

3. The Mets have been somewhat unlucky

From the glass-half-full department: this team does deserve at least a slightly better fate. New York’s expected batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which are based upon their average quality of contact, are all significantly higher than their real-world figures. Those gaps rate among the largest in the Majors, and the Mets’ batting average on balls in play also ranks in the bottom third of the league.

In plain English, it all suggests things will improve once the sample size grows.

On Monday alone, Bo Bichette hit a 106.2 mph rocket of a one-hopper that Miguel Rojas turned into an out, Taylor pulled a surefire hit down the line only to watch Max Muncy make a leaping snare of it, and Mark Vientos lined a ball directly into Wrobleski’s glove.

But even luck has its limits. The Mets still rank in the bottom quartile of the league in wOBA and wRC+, a pair of weighted metrics that portray offensive success with a high degree of accuracy. So consider this a case of two things being true: the Mets have been bad, and they’ve been unlucky. That’s at least better than just being bad.

4. They haven’t hit left-handed pitching in years

After losing to Wrobleski, the Mets fell to 0-5 in games started by lefties. While their overall statistics against left-handers were not horrid entering Monday’s play, their results have nonetheless echoed last season, when the Mets ranked second in OPS against right-handed pitchers but 17th against lefties.

Asked Monday afternoon why a team featuring several potent right-handed bats might fare so poorly against southpaws, Mendoza replied: “It’s hard to tell, because we’ve got some good hitters against left-handed pitching. Last year, we had a hard time, too. I think it’s a small sample size so far. I’m expecting this to change quickly here.”

To that end, the Mets called up the veteran Pham before Monday’s game, batting him seventh against Wrobleski. Pham finished 0-for-3 with a strikeout, as the Mets’ issues in this area persisted.