Marlins analyze 'portfolio of players' for Draft

MIAMI -- An extra month of scouting hasn't gotten rid of the uncertainty of this year's MLB Draft.

"If somebody on this call can help me with who to select this year, I would more than welcome that information," Marlins director of amateur scouting DJ Svihlik opened a Zoom call two weeks ago. "It's an exceedingly difficult year."

Day 1 of the 2021 Draft will take place live from Denver’s Bellco Theatre on Sunday. It will feature the first 36 picks and will air on MLB Network and ESPN at 7 p.m. ET. Day 2, which will span rounds 2-10, begins at 1 p.m. ET on Monday. The Draft will conclude with rounds 11-20 on Tuesday, starting at 12 p.m. ET. MLB.com will simulcast MLB Network’s broadcast and provide live coverage on all three days.

• The Draft begins at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday (ESPN/MLB.com)

• The Marlins have the 16th and 31st picks in Round 1

• The Marlins' bonus pool is $9,949,800

To view when teams pick, the Top 200 Prospects list, mock drafts from analysts Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, scouting video and more, visit to MLB.com/Draft. Follow @MLBDraft and @MLBDraftTracker on Twitter to see what Draft hopefuls, clubs and experts are saying and to get each pick as it’s made.

Here are themes heading into the 2021 MLB Draft:

Not much separation
Svihlik, who usually picked deeper down the board while with the Yankees, will need to put that experience to use this year. Miami's first pick will be its lowest since 2010, when the club chose California prep star Christian Yelich (23rd overall).

Several factors will come into play: how clubs near the Marlins (Brewers and Reds) choose, signability and relationships with players and agents. Svihlik noted there are six to seven names they know won't be available come the 16th pick.

When asked about drafting hitters in particular, Svihlik brought up Georgia prep star Brady House, who likely will be selected before the Marlins select at No. 16. While he may not stay at shortstop, a team will pick him because of his tooled-up bat, with a high floor and ceiling. Svihlik called him a "more physical version of Corey Seager."

"They're very similar players," Svihlik said of the Draft crop. "What other people do, and the information that we gain over the next two weeks, is going to help us make that decision on who it'll be. There's going to be a lot of conversation this year that we didn't have in years past, about if this than that? What scenario, what package, what portfolio of players do you want to bring in, and how do we make that the most realistic? How can we do that? When you're in the middle of the first round, and you're looking at a group of say, 10 to 12 players, the next step is, 'OK, how do we acquire as many of those players as possible, because they don't exist further in the Draft?'"

Is there a focus?
According to Svihlik, the strength of this year's class is the second-tier college hitters. That means players taken in Rounds 2-4, like Double-A Pensacola outfielder Peyton Burdick. He was chosen in the third round (82nd overall) out of Wright State University in 2019.

Svihlik said ownership doesn't send out a directive of what areas need to be addressed in a Draft. There is constant communication throughout the year. It's no secret, however, the Marlins could use catching depth. It's safe to say the University of Louisville's Henry Davis will be off the board by the time the Marlins pick at 16. Georgia prep star Harry Ford and the University of Miami's Adrian Del Castillo could be available by then.

"For most organizations, it's a position of need," Svihlik said. "Additionally, it's a very scarce position. It's not like they're falling off trees, so it lends a huge challenge to organizations on how they're going to acquire their catchers. When it comes to the amateur draft, which is what I'm accountable for, I need to understand where they come from, because we want catchers, we want to acquire catchers. I need to understand where they come from, what's the profile, what's the demographic, where's the best spots in the Draft where you can acquire the most value in catching? Is it the guy in the first round? Is it the guy on Day 2 of the Draft? Is it the catch conversion guy? So we spent a lot of time trying to understand where those Major League catchers are coming from, not just the super high-profile guys like Buster Posey or [Joe] Mauer, when he was selected in the first round. But across the board, because we need to layer the organization with catching depth."

College vs. High School
This year, there is a higher level of comfort with the high school players going into the Draft, because they continued competing through the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, there is more information on them. The Marlins were able to scout all of last summer into the fall.

Then there's the inconsistency seen from college players, who don't often make a big impact as freshmen. They had their sophomore season cut short in 2020. During their junior campaign, many found themselves trying to rediscover their swing. That goes for players like Del Castillo.

"It's the college group that became very, very difficult," Svihlik said. "You didn't have track record, you didn't have history with the college player. You look at their stats and whatnot, and we don't draft on stats, but that certainly helps build a picture. And then when they don't play, and then they show up and then they just go up and down, it creates a lot of discomfort. So if you are a fly on the wall in our Draft meetings, you would hear that from the scouts, you would hear that from the people that saw the players, you would hear widely varying opinions on the college players, and you don't hear why the varying opinions on the high school players, and it's because we've seen them a lot."