For Busch, stronger plate discipline has come with an interesting tradeoff

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After a 34-homer season in 2025 while mostly serving as a platoon bat for the Cubs, Michael Busch appeared to be on the verge of establishing himself as one of MLB’s premier first basemen -- a key cog in a lineup vying for its second straight postseason appearance.

He’s been given the chance to start every day for Chicago in 2026, and after a difficult first month or so, has picked up to be an above-average bat once again.

He’s also been platoon-neutral, posting a slightly better OPS against same-side lefty pitching (.775) than righties (.757). A 117 wRC+ -- a stat that places overall offensive production on a 100-point average -- placed him among the Top 60 Major League hitters entering Saturday’s action.

However, he’s gone about his production in a very different way than in 2025.

Entering Saturday, Busch has seen a drop in his power numbers, slugging just .399 compared to .523 a year ago. He’s hitting the ball hard (95 mph exit velocity or higher) 7.3% less frequently this season, and a 1.2 mph decrease in average swing speed -- tied for the 12th largest in MLB -- could be one culprit.

His on-base percentage, though, has jumped 20 points, entering Saturday. Busch’s 14.2% walk rate is a 4.7% increase compared to 2025, the 10th-largest improvement among hitters with at least 2.1 plate appearances per team game in both seasons. That includes a significant 6.4% increase in walk rate against southpaws, and it puts him in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters.

“I don’t think there's one reason. I’m not going into the box necessarily trying to walk, just trying to get a good pitch to hit,” Busch said before Saturday’s win in Pittsburgh. “That’s basically my approach. I’m always happy with a walk, but there are some things that go into it, except just trying to walk. A lot of it is just having some experience now. I’ve been in the league a few years and I think I have a better idea of what pitchers are trying to do with me.”

Indeed, Busch seems to have a better idea of what’s coming at the plate, especially as he’s taken advantage of a key change this season. It may also help explain the downward power trend, though he said he does not believe the increase in walks has directly caused the lack of home runs.

Busch is seeing pitches in the strike zone 46.3% of the time, a notable 5.6% drop from 2025. He’s additionally swinging 4.3% less frequently overall.

He’s been particularly picky when behind in the count, swinging just 38.9% of the time as pitchers (typically unsuccessfully) try to get him to chase for a strikeout. Interestingly, we see the largest drop in Busch’s bat-speed profile when he does swing while behind in the count.

His average swing speed in those situations is 67.3 mph, a massive 1.9 mph decrease from the same counts last season. It’s not uncommon for hitters to shorten up while hitting with two strikes, but that’s a big enough change to catch some eyes.

Subsequently, Busch’s xwOBA -- a measure of overall quality and quantity of contact -- has plummeted when he’s behind in the count. He’s posted a .193 xwOBA this season compared to .284 a year ago.

But considering the spike in walks, it seems clear he’s trying to work deeper counts and simply fight off pitches, and opponents have obliged thus far.

Conversely, Busch is still swinging less frequently this season while ahead in the count (6.9%, to be exact), but his average swing speed in such situations is much better at 69.6 mph. That’s equal to his overall average from the powerful 2025 campaign.

He’s carrying a .483 xwOBA and a 44.7% hard-hit rate when ahead in the count this season, both of which are actually better than his marks from last season. Seven of his 13 home runs this year have come in hitters’ counts.

There are other reasons that one could point to for Busch’s drop in pop; bat speed isn’t everything. He’s pulling the ball in the air just 16.7% of the time this season, compared to 22.2% in 2025 -- and he’s hitting ground balls more frequently than either of the past two seasons.

But bat speed does matter quite a lot for a power hitter, as one scan through the metric’s leaderboard should make clear. Only two hitters with a slower average swing speed have hit more home runs than Busch in 2026: the Marlins’ Liam Hicks and the Astros’ Isaac Paredes, both of whom have succeeded thanks to pull-heavy approaches.

Perhaps Busch’s power decline has more to do with his overall selectivity, as he’s still getting his “A swing” off when ahead in the count.

He’s also been a bit more aggressive in July, swinging 49.7% of the time. Busch has slugged .449 with three homers as a result, both of which would be his second-best in any month of the year.

A hot-hitting Busch would certainly do a lot for the Cubs the rest of 2026.

“I think I’m still an aggressive hitter, when the situation calls for it,” Busch said. “It’s just that I’m not swinging at as many bad pitches. I know I’m still capable of [hitting] home runs. Sometimes that’s baseball, but things tend to even out.”