Bad BABIP luck continues for Lorenzen at Coors Field

DENVER -- In the wake of the Rockies’ 10-5 loss to the Mets at a frigid but dry Coors Field following a snowstorm in the region Wednesday, Michael Lorenzen’s ERA over his first four home starts for Colorado is 9.64.

But according to the veteran right-hander, whom the Rockies signed to a one-year contract this past offseason, the outcomes don’t tell the whole story.

“It’s kind of just challeng[ing] them to put the ball in play, and just a lot of bloops that are hit over second base on changeups, sinkers in that are jammed,” Lorenzen said. “I’m making good pitches, I’m throwing the right pitches. Just things aren’t going my way.”

Entering Wednesday’s start against New York, a club against whom he threw seven strong innings and yielded only one run at Citi Field on April 24, the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Lorenzen at Coors on the young season was .456.

According to Statcast, the expected batting average on balls in play against Lorenzen at Coors based on quality of contact was .369, 87 points below the actual BABIP. And the expected slugging percentage on balls in play against him in Colorado was .531, 136 points below the actual figure.

To put that into context, the overall expected BABIP at Coors this season for all pitchers entering Wednesday was .333, and the actual number was .353. And as for expected slugging on balls in play, it was .566, whereas the actual slugging percentage on balls in play was .598.

“It’s just kind of frustrating throughout the whole year so far this year,” Lorenzen said. “I feel like I’ve thrown the ball pretty good. Today, I felt like I threw it great.”

The expected batting average on the first ball put in play against Lorenzen on Wednesday night was 1.000. It was a home run over the wall in left-center field by Juan Soto, the first leadoff homer of Soto’s career.

Two batters later, MJ Melendez tripled to right-center. But Lorenzen didn’t have regrets about how he approached those two.

“Those were the two right pitches to throw to those guys,” he said, “and executed not terribly to those individuals.”

Lorenzen recovered to strand Melendez at third. And while he gave up six more hits over the next four innings, he limited the damage to four runs overall. In the sixth, things got out of hand. Lorenzen surrendered three straight hits to open the frame -- a Marcus Semien single, a Carson Benge double and a Francisco Alvarez RBI single.

That spelled the end of the night for Lorenzen, and he was charged with two more runs that scored when reliever Zach Agnos yielded a sacrifice fly by Soto and an RBI single by Bo Bichette.

The pitching line was ugly. But Lorenzen wasn’t hanging his head afterward. Neither was his manager when asked what he saw in Lorenzen’s tough outing.

“I see too small of a sample size to make a thing on that one,” Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said. “The first game that he pitched against Philadelphia (nine earned runs in three innings) was like a throwaway game. Michael will be fine. He wanted to come here to pitch, specifically. He’ll figure it out.”

Lorenzen did, indeed, want to come to Colorado to pitch. He loves the region, but he also wanted to do what new president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta said he wanted to do when he came aboard following a 119-loss season.

“I’ve always been interested in, like, ‘What is the best way to pitch here?’” Lorenzen said. “Obviously, I haven’t figured that out.”

He hasn’t. But it’s early. And positive regression is what he’s hoping he’ll start to see as he forges ahead, pitching his home games in the most hitter-friendly atmosphere in the game.

It’s not that it’s all due to the giant Coors outfield or the outsized influence luck can have in small sample sizes. He’s the first one to admit that he’s given up hard contact and paid for it.

But there is something to be said about that BABIP.

“You just have to keep doing it and trust that baseball’s going to change,” Lorenzen said. “You can’t have a .450 BABIP all year. So you just have to kind of hope that at some point it changes. … I feel like I’m making progress. Today’s the best I’ve felt in a really long time, mechanically. I’m happy with how I feel. And the numbers aren’t supporting it.”