Keller's latest rocky start magnifies Pirates' rotation struggles

WASHINGTON -- Though much of the talk has -- understandably -- revolved around Paul Skenes, the Pirates' starting pitching woes extend well beyond their young ace.

This is a team that boasted one of the best rotations in baseball for the first month and a half of the season. That has not been the case for the month and a half since.

The latest stumble came from Mitch Keller in Friday night's 9-5 loss to the Nationals. The veteran right-hander was tagged for five runs (including three homers) over six innings on a day when temperatures hit triple digits at Nationals Park.

Keller now has a 6.92 ERA over his past 10 starts. He had a 2.87 ERA through his first eight outings prior to this stretch.

“We've just got to keep working with him,” manager Don Kelly said, “and try to get him back to doing what he's capable of doing.”

Now, there were a couple of bright spots this time around. Keller did not issue a walk -- the first time he has done that since April 19. He also settled in to give the Pirates some much-needed length.

After allowing five runs in the first three innings, including a home run in each frame, Keller retired 10 of the final 11 batters he faced. He finished his outing with three consecutive scoreless innings to get through six -- no small feat for a team that got just four innings out of its starter each of the past two days. With a taxed bullpen, the Pirates turned to outfielder Tyler Callihan to record the final two outs on Friday night.

“Not happy with the results, obviously,” Keller said. “But yeah, still getting through six out there -- I can have a positive with that. Just trying to find the positives going forward, but yeah, I just need to turn it around.”

While Keller turned in his first walk-free outing in more than two months, he also recorded his first three-homer outing in nearly a year. The three home runs matched Keller's career high, and they were the most he'd allowed since a visit to Coors Field on Aug. 3 last season.

Keller has now allowed 10 home runs in 10 starts since May 13. He allowed only two in his first eight starts.

But again, this isn't just a Keller issue.

Using that same cutoff point, Pittsburgh's rotation combined for a 3.30 ERA through May 12. That ranked fourth in the Majors -- and only the Braves had a better rotation ERA among National League clubs.

Since May 13, though, the Pirates' starting staff has a 5.02 collective ERA. That ranks 21st across the Majors.

Sure, Keller's 6.92 ERA during that span is a big part of that -- as is Skenes' 5.36 ERA over his nine starts in that stretch. But there's also Jared Jones' 5.28 ERA in his seven starts since coming off the injured list. Bubba Chandler has a 4.63 ERA in nine outings (eight starts) in that time.

The one saving grace has been Braxton Ashcraft, who's slated to start Saturday's 11 a.m. ET ballgame. But even he's coming off a 4.82 ERA in June after posting a 2.77 ERA through May.

“The starting rotation is the foundation,” Kelly said. “And we need them big time.”

Perhaps adding to the concern in Keller's case, in particular, is his track record as the season goes on. While the idea of getting a reset over the All-Star break may sound great in theory, Keller -- who has one first-half start remaining -- has typically struggled down the stretch.

Here's a look at his second-half ERA by season:

• 2019: 6.00 ERA (8 starts)
• 2021: 5.40 ERA (11 starts)
• 2022: 3.09 ERA (13 starts)
• 2023: 5.59 ERA (13 starts)
• 2024: 5.65 ERA (12 starts)
• 2025: 5.65 ERA (12 starts)

Overall, Keller is 13-30 with a 5.13 ERA in 69 second-half outings.

So yes, the Pirates certainly need Skenes to get back on track as the first half winds down -- but they need Keller to do the same.

“Just executing better, better pitch selection -- just better all around,” Keller said. “I just have to be better.”