Bucs' Keller conundrum: Case for and against trading vet to retool for '26
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This winter might be the Pirates’ most important offseason since 2012, the months before they made the leap from a sub-.500 club to the postseason in '13. The circumstances this winter are similar, as the Pirates (71-91) finished last in the National League Central, but club president Travis Williams was clear with their expectations: “Win in 2026 and to make the playoffs. Period. Full stop.”
It’s a pivotal winter. Their most pivotal decision is what they will do with Mitch Keller.
The veteran righty is coming off a solid season, albeit not to his previous All-Star level, finishing 6-15 with a 4.19 ERA over 32 starts and 176 1/3 innings. That’s a valuable pitcher, but Keller could also bring back an impact player in return.
Time will tell if the Pirates decide to make a move, but the decision is not black-and-white. There are plenty of reasons to keep Keller and plenty of reasons to try to flip him. Let’s take a look at three of each.
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CASE FOR: Trade from a strength
Paul Skenes. Bubba Chandler. Braxton Ashcraft. Johan Oviedo. Mike Burrows. Hunter Barco. Jared Jones. The Pirates boast perhaps the best young pitching core in baseball, anchored by a perpetual Cy Young contender in Skenes.
Keller would definitely be one of the club’s five best starters, but this offense needs a boost. If they can add a legit bat to the lineup in exchange for Keller, they have the pitching depth to entertain a deal.
CASE AGAINST: How much depth do you have?
Burrows finished with 128 1/3 total innings this year between Triple-A Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, Ashcraft with 118 (also between Triple-A and Pittsburgh) and Barco with 102 1/3 (split among the Pirates, Indianapolis and Double-A Altoona). Those were all significant leaps forward from each hurler's previous career high, over 30 innings from their previous records. Jones is coming off elbow surgery. Oviedo will be in his first full year back from Tommy John himself.
As the saying goes, you can never have too much pitching, and Keller, Skenes and Oviedo are the only pitchers on the roster who have thrown 140 innings in a season. Injuries can happen. Workloads might need to be managed. Keller has made 95 starts since 2023, tied for the fifth most in baseball. Sometimes the best ability is availability, and he can be a stabilizing force in a young and talented rotation.
CASE FOR: Frees up money
Keller is set to make $16.5 million in 2026 and has three years and $54.5 million remaining on his deal. That’s hardly back-breaking, but it’s also a big chunk of the Pirates’ projected payroll, and there are areas of this roster that need to be addressed.
Financial flexibility played into the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade in July. This team needs to add at least one infielder and one corner outfielder, but that’s hardly an exhaustive list. Having a larger slush fund could either let them spread the money around to more areas of need or take a bigger swing on the free-agent hitter market.
CASE AGAINST: He’s a veteran leader
You need players to set the pace and be an example. Keller is that type of player and person. Skenes has grown into that type of leader, too, but he will be the first to tell you that Keller was one of those examples he looked up to in his rookie year. This is a young club and Keller is their second-longest-tenured player behind Bryan Reynolds.
CASE FOR: It’s a weak free-agent class for pitchers
Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez are solid and Dylan Cease will get plenty of attention this winter. But unless Shota Imanaga, Lucas Giolito and Michael King hit the market (both have mutual options for 2026 with the Red Sox and Padres, respectively), that’s really about it in terms of impact arms up for grabs this offseason (and that trio has plenty of question marks, too).
There’s always a demand for pitchers, Keller is better than most of the options out there and he comes with a guaranteed contract. He could be one of the best arms available this winter.
CASE AGAINST: Is he more valuable as a player than as a trade chip?
The asking price for Keller this Trade Deadline was high, and justifiably so. Nobody was willing to meet the price, so the Pirates kept him.
There’s no reason to trade Keller for less than what they think he is worth. He is one of their best trade chips. He is also one of their best players and can make the 2026 club better.